Why it is not worth using the Lay The Draw strategy?

First of all, I wanted to remind you that I decided to test the bets for LTD below 1.9 odds with a score of 0-0 in the second half. (you can read more about it here)

On my Twitter account, you could have tracked all the bets I have focused on in-play during the testing period started in December 2020. My aim was to have 100 samples, however, due to lack of time I have finished with 65 documented samples. The testing period is time-consuming so forgive me if you expected more. However, the numbers I have and statistics for the previous last 5 years should give enough overview about this strategy.

As you remember from the previous post chances that there will be at least one goal are between 49-61% in 70-60 minute period. My strike rate for those 65 samples equals 47,7%. if I subtract the 1-1 score (7,7% games) then my LTD ends with 40%. In total -5,3point loss, the longest losing streak was 10 bets.

Let’s compare the results to the statistical data for the last few years.

From the previous screen, you could have noticed that my avg entry time was 69min and my avg entry LTD was 1,82. Based on the statistical data I should have been close to 49% on O0.5% and 43% on strike rate on LTD. My numbers were a bit worse, due to the small sample data.

Odds and Probability have an inversely proportional relationship, this means that as the expected probability of an outcome increases the odds decrease, and as the probability decreases then the odds increase. In our case, as we have statistical data we can calculate odds based on the previous win%. The above numbers show us, that we will end up breakeven or even with a small loss as we need to add Betfair commission to it.

In a nutshell, in order to be profitable if we enter the market in 70 min then the odds need to be below 1.75, if we enter in 65 min then odds have to be below 1,91. It is just simple math, that people do not take into consideration.

It means that you have to be selective and not enter a market when the price is not right there.

As you can see my avg odds at 69min were at 1,82 so it not even close to odd 1,78(or 1,75 in 70min) which eventually would lead to bankruptcy!

I need to admit that I have bigger samples of this kind of bet, which documented only for my own purpose. However, this is not valid for you, as you should not believe people whatever they say without transparent proven records. I will share it with you as I like you to focus on other factors as well. Here are the results:

According to my 223 bets, I have got 5,56point profit. avg entry time 67min and win% 47%. If we look at the statistics data when we enter the market at 67min then in order to be profitable we need to enter the market with odds below 1.85 and win% above 46%. However, as always I want you to focus on the main factor which is the payoff ratio.

Look a the values I have added to risk of ruin simulator:

Expectancy, win%, and payoff ratio are at the low level, that in some randomized results you can go bankrupt. So even if you might think you have a profitable strategy you need to calculate your own risk of ruin.

I have many new followers who focus on my tipping bets, even though I did not prove earlier than this LTD@1.9 is profitable. I hope you do not follow anyone blindly, and you focus on the learning process.

I just want to admit that I will not carry on with these LTD@1.9 bets.
The reason behind this is:
1) time-consuming,
2) not so many bets, which pass tighten filters in order to be in profit,
3) in my opinion this strategy could be automated however in the long term you can expect a tiny profit only.

If you want to learn how the exchange works, I strongly encourage you to subscribe to my newsletter from which you will get practical knowledge about different strategies.

Appendix: recorded data (all the 65 games outcomes)