The most popular market next to Match Odds is the Over 2.5 goals. If we look at the pre-game statistics for above 100000 games in the last six years it shows us, that about 49% of the matches finished with over 2.5 goals in a football match. If we convert the implied chances to odds, it gives us information that odds have to be at 2.03 on average or higher in order to be profitable.
Probably you already know that it is better to wait for better odds. What do the stats say? I will only consider a 0-0 draw till 20-25 mins.
If you look at the table above you will notice that we should back at 3.0 and lay at 1.5 in general. We do not consider here pre-game odds for over2.5 goals. However, if we take into consideration pre-game odds above 2.0 on over2.5 goals market then the stats would suggest we should back at 3.5 and lay at 1.4 odds.
It is very difficult to get the right odds at the right time, especially as the bookies and market know the math as well. Obviously, this figure would vary depending on the league and other factors but it’s just a rule of thumb.
If you consider entering the market you should always consider true odds value and not only implied odds.
In April, I will try to do for you another test, that would be transparent on my Twitter account. My aim would be to enter the market around 25min when still 0-0 with laying odds at 1.5. Let’s call the method: LU25. At the end of the month, I will show you the results. For each game, I will use a 1point liability.
