As we approach the end of December, it’s time to evaluate the progress of my over 1.5 goals strategy, introduced at the beginning of the season. Initially, the approach involved placing in-play bets between the 15th and 25th minute of matches that were still 0-0. While this provided a steady foundation, the results over the first few months have been underwhelming, with the strategy settling around break-even and ending slightly down at -2 points.
You can review the detailed results in this spreadsheet
Adjustments and Improvements
To address these challenges, I implemented several refinements based on the data collected so far:
Timing Adjustments:
A key change was shifting the focus from first-half betting to opportunities in the second half or during halftime. Specifically, I now enter markets only in matches where at least one goal has been scored in the first half. This adjustment has proven effective in identifying games with a higher likelihood of additional goals.
Outcome: This new timing approach has generated approximately +8 points of profit.
Exploring Complementary Markets:
Alongside the over 1.5 goals market, I began testing bets on over 0.5 FT and other goal-based strategies using tailored filters. These additional markets have performed well, contributing +10 points to the overall results.
Refined Selection Criteria:
By focusing on specific match characteristics and historical data trends, I’ve improved the accuracy of match selection. This has allowed me to identify games with strong goal potential better while avoiding less favorable opportunities.
What’s Next
The adjustments made so far have shown clear improvements in performance, and I plan to continue refining the strategy as the season progresses. To facilitate real-time updates and make the process more interactive, I’ve set up a Telegram group.
Through the group, I will:
- Share the markets I’m entering and the reasoning behind the selections.
- Provide live updates on results and strategy performance.
Summary
The first half of the season highlighted the need for flexibility and continuous improvement. Shifting to second-half markets and expanding into complementary betting options has delivered better results. As the season continues, these refinements will remain a key focus, to further improve consistency and profitability.
If you’re interested in tracking the progress or exploring these markets, the Telegram group will provide a convenient way to stay informed.
