How to trade based on FHG stats?
A long time passed since my last post was published on my blog. I will not go into details what was the reason, but I am sorry for those who were reading it regularly.
Today I’m going to please you with my approach to the first half goals trading strategy (FHG) and get the most out of this market.
Common strategies in this market are well known. The most popular is Back Over 0.5 FHG when 0-0 after 20-25 minutes, so odds reach around 2.00, and Back Over 0.5 FHG when 0-0 after 35 minutes, so odds are usually above 3.00. Both could be very profitable if your pre-selections are correct. However, you miss a chance in case a quick goal is scored. You need to calculate your risk/reward ratio and judge if it is profitable for you.
You can always try to enter the market earlier with odds 1.4 but then your implied probability needs to be above 72% to ensure you profit for a long time.
Some people use also the 1.5FHG market to be secured in case of quick goals.
I think that I have a simpler approach to be quick enough on the market and get most of it in case of a late goal is scored.
The simple strategy is well known and it is called Lay The Draw on the HT market.
Let’s look at the implied odds and probability for a large number of matches.
My aim is always to enter the market when odds are equal to 2.2 or lower and never later than 15min after kick-off. It is due to the fact that strong favorites have a big impact on odds.
I use Cgmbet software for my pre-game research list. I use FHG stats that show 80% chances of a goal in the last 5 games for both the Home and Away team.
HT LTD based on HT 0.5 FHG stats strategy rules:
- Filter games when HT 0.5 FHG probability equal 80% or more for the last 5 games (both Home and Away)
- LTD on HT market at the start or when odds reach 2.2 for 1 point liability (1%)
- Hedge after a goal (expected profit between 0,25 – 0,8 depends on a goal time, with average should be around 0,5)
- The expected strike rate should be above 66%
For the next few months, I am going to post the match list on my Twitter account with the games I will be involved in. At the end of each month, I will show you the results.
