First Loss – Could It Have Been Avoided?
After a series of successful trades, boasting an average ROI of 37%, the inevitable first loss occurred. On Sunday, January 14th, the underdog Almeria faced off against title contender Girona.
The statistics for this match appeared promising:
- Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 = 26
- Magic No. = 2
- Almeria held a Points Per Game (PPG) Home of 0.25, with Points Per Game (PPG) Home Opp PPG at 1.48.
- Girona had Points Per Game (PPG) Away of 2.5, with an identical Points Per Game (PPG) Away Opp PPG of 1.48.
- The Standard Deviation (SD) range for Almeria was 0-2, while Girona’s SD range was 1-4.
- Additionally, the first goal scored at home for Almeria was 22%, while Girona’s first goal conceded away was 33%.
The only puzzling aspect was Girona’s odds drifting from 1.65 to 1.95 on the day of the match. However, no discernible cause for this increase was found. While generally, odds below 2 are acceptable, my preference is when they drop below 1.8.
The match outcome added to the intrigue, concluding with a goalless draw. This begs the question: Could this loss have been anticipated, or did the odds movement hint at unforeseen factors influencing the match outcome?
In my opinion, no. As a trader, you need to deal with losses. Sometimes, goals for the underdog will be scored from nowhere, or the favorite will struggle to score one. If I were to trade this match once again, I would go for it, as my stats suggested. Losses are just a part of this business.
You can find other trades and current P/L in my updated spreadsheet with my outcomes.
