We are about to start World Cup so it is time, to sum up, the last half-year results on my FHG bets. Since April (when I changed from HTLTD into FHG bets) I managed to have over 700 selected games. When we add another 250 selections from HTLTD (which had the same filters used for game selection) it gives us about 1000 games, which is a good enough indicator to make some conclusions.
For the selected 726 games, 45% (332 games) were missed due to the goal scored before odds (GBO). The strike rate decreased from 53.9% to 52% which still is good enough to be in profit ( converted to implied odds it is equal to 1,92 odds)
The longest losing streak (including missed bets was 7 bets and it appeared 4 times, which is still below the 9.4 losing sequence for 1000 samples [math theory]
I must admit that the last 3 months it was a rollercoaster. Ups and downs, so not many points were earned. Please keep in mind that trading/betting is not a sprint, but a marathon.
The main thing in any trading/betting system is to measure all statistics in order to make some adjustments later on or to spot other possibilities. In our samples, you could notice that FHG % was 74% if you bet before KO, and SHG % was 81,8% if you bet at HT. If we convert those numbers to implied odds it gives us the results: 1,35 odds for betting on FHG, and 1,22 odds for betting on SHG. There were 48,1% of games that had over1,5 goals in SH, etc. All numbers converted to implied odds, give you chance to find some other opportunities. I will be back to it after World Cup.
CU Green
Appendix: recorded data FHG (since August 2022, if you need previous data check old blog posts)
