As usual, I prefer to wait until teams have played around eight matches before stepping in. By this point, form starts to settle, stats make more sense, and there’s enough data to work with. Now that the schedule is full again, it’s time to start putting things into practice.

The break was a good chance to step back, review a few things, and make sure everything’s ready for a consistent run. From this weekend, we’ll be back in the market — focusing on quality setups and steady progress.

I’ll continue trading the same way as before — using the Goalwatch approach, in my own modified version. As always, every move and update will be shared in the Telegram group, so if you’re following along, that’s where you’ll find all the activity.

It’s good to be back. Let’s get to work.

Stats Since Dec 27:

Strategy / Alert	Games	Trading/Betting
LA	43	–1.41 / +3.08
FHG	72	–5.7
HF	4	+1.98
SHG	10	+0.383 / –0.01
GW	44	–1.17
Domination-1-Goal-Diff Alert	19	+2.79
1.5 FT <25min 1SHG (not HT00)	8	+1.57

This season had its ups and downs. Some strategies — like FHG — failed to deliver consistent value and likely need a fresh approach, while alerts based on in-play context, such as domination or goal-timing patterns, demonstrated strong potential. Overall, betting setups tended to outperform trading, especially when paired with well-defined entry filters.

Key Takeaways & Season Reflection

This season brought a mix of challenges and valuable lessons. Some strategies — particularly FHG — underperformed and may require a full rethink. Others, like alerts driven by in-play dynamics such as Domination-1-Goal-Diff or goal-timing patterns, showed more resilience and long-term potential.

Although GoalWatch closed the season slightly in the red, it remains the most structured and stable strategy in the portfolio. Its consistent scheduling, transparency, and historical reliability make it the strongest foundation for future trading — even if short-term results fluctuate.

Above all, this season reinforced an important truth: growth doesn’t require constant activity. Stepping back, focusing on quality, and refining the edge always beats chasing every opportunity.

Next season, I’ll focus exclusively on GoalWatch. Other setups like FHG and LA will be quietly monitored but will not be prioritized unless they show significant improvement.

Now it’s time to rest and recharge — see you after the summer break.

You can review the detailed results in this spreadsheet

Adjustments and Improvements

To address these challenges, I implemented several refinements based on the data collected so far:

Timing Adjustments:
A key change was shifting the focus from first-half betting to opportunities in the second half or during halftime. Specifically, I now enter markets only in matches where at least one goal has been scored in the first half. This adjustment has proven effective in identifying games with a higher likelihood of additional goals.

Outcome: This new timing approach has generated approximately +8 points of profit.

Exploring Complementary Markets:

Alongside the over 1.5 goals market, I began testing bets on over 0.5 FT and other goal-based strategies using tailored filters. These additional markets have performed well, contributing +10 points to the overall results.

Refined Selection Criteria:

By focusing on specific match characteristics and historical data trends, I’ve improved the accuracy of match selection. This has allowed me to identify games with strong goal potential better while avoiding less favorable opportunities.

What’s Next

The adjustments made so far have shown clear improvements in performance, and I plan to continue refining the strategy as the season progresses. To facilitate real-time updates and make the process more interactive, I’ve set up a Telegram group.

Through the group, I will:

• Share the markets I’m entering and the reasoning behind the selections.
• Provide live updates on results and strategy performance.

Summary

The first half of the season highlighted the need for flexibility and continuous improvement. Shifting to second-half markets and expanding into complementary betting options has delivered better results. As the season continues, these refinements will remain a key focus, to further improve consistency and profitability.

If you’re interested in tracking the progress or exploring these markets, the Telegram group will provide a convenient way to stay informed.

This time, I’ll be focusing on the over 1.5 goals market. It’s an efficient method because, statistically, most matches see at least two goals. The beauty of this market is that it doesn’t require high-risk betting—just a solid understanding of the game and team dynamics. My approach will be a set-and-forget strategy, where I’ll place in-play bets between the 15th and 25th minute of the match, but only if the score is still 0-0. This allows me to capitalize on games that are likely to open up as teams start pushing for goals.

I’ll be focusing mainly on matches where there’s a clear favorite, using metrics like points-per-game (PPG) to identify games where goals are more likely. However, my decision to enter will also depend on the odds being offered. I’ll compare the live odds to the average odds from both the current and previous seasons to ensure I’m getting value before placing a bet.

This strategy offers a balance of simplicity and efficiency, and I’m optimistic about the potential returns this season. As always, I’ll be sharing my updates and results, so stay tuned!

Remember, the goal is to keep things fun, straightforward, and profitable. Here’s to an exciting season ahead with plenty of goals!

Catch you all soon!

Playoff Outcomes

Summary

So far, our strategy of betting against favorites with odds below 2.0 has shown positive results both in the group stages and the playoffs. In total, the strategy has yielded a net gain of:

• Group Stage: 13.49 points
• Playoffs: 1.52 points

Total Net Gain: 13.49 + 1.52 = 15.01 points

Wins in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

Losses in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

Final Outcome: 25.49 − 12 = 13.49 points

Betting against the favorites with odds below 2.0 in these matches generated 25.49 points. After considering the -12 points liability from the matches where the favorites won, the net result is 13.49 points. This analysis demonstrates that even when the favorites are heavily favored (odds below 2.0), there is still significant potential for returns by betting against them.

In-Play Betting Insights

Those of you following my in-play betting values on X may have noticed that the three matches I posted at the beginning of the tournament resulted in losses. These matches are:

• Hungary 1-2 Switzerland: Laid Switzerland at 1.19
• Serbia 0-1 England: Laid England at 1.23 in the 64th minute
• Austria 0-1 France: Laid France at 1.19 in the 63rd minute

I couldn’t provide further match updates online due to being on vacation. Instead, I focused on pre-match predictions as discussed in my previous blog post. I hope you enjoyed the first part of the tournament. I will update the results after the playoffs are finished.

Why Bet Against Favorites?

High Odds for Upsets: In football, especially in tournaments like Euro 2024, upsets happen frequently. Even the strongest teams can have off days, and underdog teams are often underrated. By laying against favorites, we can take advantage of attractive odds on potential surprises.

Crowd Psychology: Many bettors place their bets based on emotions and loyalties, often inflating the odds on favorites to inappropriate levels. By going against the crowd, we can exploit these overvalued odds to our benefit.

Statistics and Analysis: Modern analytical tools allow in-depth analysis of matches, team form, and individual players. This enables us to assess better the likelihood of an upset and place lay bets with greater confidence.

Risk Management: Lay betting allows for better risk management. Since we are betting on something not happening, we have greater flexibility in stake selection and can better control potential losses.

Betting Against Favorites with Low Odds

My primary strategy will focus on laying against favorites when their odds are below 2.0. This approach targets situations where the market heavily backs the favorite, often overlooking the potential for an upset. By focusing on these lower odds, I aim to capitalize on the overconfidence placed in the favorite, increasing my chances of benefiting from any surprises.

How to Bet Lay Effectively?

Thorough Team Analysis: Before placing any bet, it’s crucial to thoroughly analyze team form, match statistics, injuries, and other factors that could influence the outcome.

Staying Updated: Keeping up with current news about the teams, such as key player injuries or tactical changes, can significantly affect a favorite’s chances of winning.

Bankroll Management: Proper bankroll management is key to avoiding significant losses and systematically building profits.

Conclusion

Euro 2024 promises to be an incredibly thrilling tournament, full of unexpected twists and dramatic moments. By betting against the favorites, I plan to take advantage of the opportunities that football and the betting market offer. I hope this approach increases my chances of profit and enhances my enjoyment of each match.

In recent months, I’ve placed fewer bets. However, this doesn’t affect my positive outlook on the strategy. Sometimes, betting less is actually better, as it allows for more thoughtful and strategic decisions.

And let’s not forget—Euro 2024 is just around the corner! This major event is sure to bring plenty of exciting betting opportunities. I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on the matches and looking for those golden chances to make some smart bets.

Stay tuned for my picks and updates—I’ll be sharing them with you all soon. For now, you can track my results and see how things are shaping up.

Remember, betting is about earning some extra cash while keeping it fun and straightforward. Let’s keep those profits coming!

Cheers to a great season and even better things to come!

Catch you all soon!

So, what’s been happening? Well, I managed to sneak in a bet on the Hibernian vs. Celtic match, and let me tell you, it was a good one! I got a 34.33% return on investment, which is pretty sweet for my first bet back, don’t you think?

Now, I know some of you might be wondering why I didn’t bet more. Trust me, I wanted to, but life got in the way. I had some personal stuff going on over the weekend, and sometimes you just have to take a step back and focus on what’s important.

But don’t worry, I’m not going anywhere! I’ve got my eye on the market, and I’m ready to jump on the next opportunity. So stay tuned, because I’ll share my picks with you all soon. for now, you can track my results here.

And remember, betting is all about patience to make a little extra cash on the side. So let’s keep it light, keep it simple, and most importantly, keep it profitable!

The statistics for this match appeared promising:

• Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 = 26
• Magic No. = 2
• Almeria held a Points Per Game (PPG) Home of 0.25, with Points Per Game (PPG) Home Opp PPG at 1.48.
• Girona had Points Per Game (PPG) Away of 2.5, with an identical Points Per Game (PPG) Away Opp PPG of 1.48.
• The Standard Deviation (SD) range for Almeria was 0-2, while Girona’s SD range was 1-4.
• Additionally, the first goal scored at home for Almeria was 22%, while Girona’s first goal conceded away was 33%.

The only puzzling aspect was Girona’s odds drifting from 1.65 to 1.95 on the day of the match. However, no discernible cause for this increase was found. While generally, odds below 2 are acceptable, my preference is when they drop below 1.8.

The match outcome added to the intrigue, concluding with a goalless draw. This begs the question: Could this loss have been anticipated, or did the odds movement hint at unforeseen factors influencing the match outcome?

In my opinion, no. As a trader, you need to deal with losses. Sometimes, goals for the underdog will be scored from nowhere, or the favorite will struggle to score one. If I were to trade this match once again, I would go for it, as my stats suggested. Losses are just a part of this business.

You can find other trades and current P/L in my updated spreadsheet with my outcomes.