As usual, I prefer to wait until teams have played around eight matches before stepping in. By this point, form starts to settle, stats make more sense, and there’s enough data to work with. Now that the schedule is full again, it’s time to start putting things into practice.

The break was a good chance to step back, review a few things, and make sure everything’s ready for a consistent run. From this weekend, we’ll be back in the market — focusing on quality setups and steady progress.

I’ll continue trading the same way as before — using the Goalwatch approach, in my own modified version. As always, every move and update will be shared in the Telegram group, so if you’re following along, that’s where you’ll find all the activity.

It’s good to be back. Let’s get to work.

Stats Since Dec 27:

Strategy / Alert	Games	Trading/Betting
LA	43	–1.41 / +3.08
FHG	72	–5.7
HF	4	+1.98
SHG	10	+0.383 / –0.01
GW	44	–1.17
Domination-1-Goal-Diff Alert	19	+2.79
1.5 FT <25min 1SHG (not HT00)	8	+1.57

This season had its ups and downs. Some strategies — like FHG — failed to deliver consistent value and likely need a fresh approach, while alerts based on in-play context, such as domination or goal-timing patterns, demonstrated strong potential. Overall, betting setups tended to outperform trading, especially when paired with well-defined entry filters.

Key Takeaways & Season Reflection

This season brought a mix of challenges and valuable lessons. Some strategies — particularly FHG — underperformed and may require a full rethink. Others, like alerts driven by in-play dynamics such as Domination-1-Goal-Diff or goal-timing patterns, showed more resilience and long-term potential.

Although GoalWatch closed the season slightly in the red, it remains the most structured and stable strategy in the portfolio. Its consistent scheduling, transparency, and historical reliability make it the strongest foundation for future trading — even if short-term results fluctuate.

Above all, this season reinforced an important truth: growth doesn’t require constant activity. Stepping back, focusing on quality, and refining the edge always beats chasing every opportunity.

Next season, I’ll focus exclusively on GoalWatch. Other setups like FHG and LA will be quietly monitored but will not be prioritized unless they show significant improvement.

Now it’s time to rest and recharge — see you after the summer break.

You can review the detailed results in this spreadsheet

Adjustments and Improvements

To address these challenges, I implemented several refinements based on the data collected so far:

Timing Adjustments:
A key change was shifting the focus from first-half betting to opportunities in the second half or during halftime. Specifically, I now enter markets only in matches where at least one goal has been scored in the first half. This adjustment has proven effective in identifying games with a higher likelihood of additional goals.

Outcome: This new timing approach has generated approximately +8 points of profit.

Exploring Complementary Markets:

Alongside the over 1.5 goals market, I began testing bets on over 0.5 FT and other goal-based strategies using tailored filters. These additional markets have performed well, contributing +10 points to the overall results.

Refined Selection Criteria:

By focusing on specific match characteristics and historical data trends, I’ve improved the accuracy of match selection. This has allowed me to identify games with strong goal potential better while avoiding less favorable opportunities.

What’s Next

The adjustments made so far have shown clear improvements in performance, and I plan to continue refining the strategy as the season progresses. To facilitate real-time updates and make the process more interactive, I’ve set up a Telegram group.

Through the group, I will:

• Share the markets I’m entering and the reasoning behind the selections.
• Provide live updates on results and strategy performance.

Summary

The first half of the season highlighted the need for flexibility and continuous improvement. Shifting to second-half markets and expanding into complementary betting options has delivered better results. As the season continues, these refinements will remain a key focus, to further improve consistency and profitability.

If you’re interested in tracking the progress or exploring these markets, the Telegram group will provide a convenient way to stay informed.

This time, I’ll be focusing on the over 1.5 goals market. It’s an efficient method because, statistically, most matches see at least two goals. The beauty of this market is that it doesn’t require high-risk betting—just a solid understanding of the game and team dynamics. My approach will be a set-and-forget strategy, where I’ll place in-play bets between the 15th and 25th minute of the match, but only if the score is still 0-0. This allows me to capitalize on games that are likely to open up as teams start pushing for goals.

I’ll be focusing mainly on matches where there’s a clear favorite, using metrics like points-per-game (PPG) to identify games where goals are more likely. However, my decision to enter will also depend on the odds being offered. I’ll compare the live odds to the average odds from both the current and previous seasons to ensure I’m getting value before placing a bet.

This strategy offers a balance of simplicity and efficiency, and I’m optimistic about the potential returns this season. As always, I’ll be sharing my updates and results, so stay tuned!

Remember, the goal is to keep things fun, straightforward, and profitable. Here’s to an exciting season ahead with plenty of goals!

Catch you all soon!

Playoff Outcomes

Summary

So far, our strategy of betting against favorites with odds below 2.0 has shown positive results both in the group stages and the playoffs. In total, the strategy has yielded a net gain of:

• Group Stage: 13.49 points
• Playoffs: 1.52 points

Total Net Gain: 13.49 + 1.52 = 15.01 points

Wins in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

Losses in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

Final Outcome: 25.49 − 12 = 13.49 points

Betting against the favorites with odds below 2.0 in these matches generated 25.49 points. After considering the -12 points liability from the matches where the favorites won, the net result is 13.49 points. This analysis demonstrates that even when the favorites are heavily favored (odds below 2.0), there is still significant potential for returns by betting against them.

In-Play Betting Insights

Those of you following my in-play betting values on X may have noticed that the three matches I posted at the beginning of the tournament resulted in losses. These matches are:

• Hungary 1-2 Switzerland: Laid Switzerland at 1.19
• Serbia 0-1 England: Laid England at 1.23 in the 64th minute
• Austria 0-1 France: Laid France at 1.19 in the 63rd minute

I couldn’t provide further match updates online due to being on vacation. Instead, I focused on pre-match predictions as discussed in my previous blog post. I hope you enjoyed the first part of the tournament. I will update the results after the playoffs are finished.

The statistics for this match appeared promising:

• Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 = 26
• Magic No. = 2
• Almeria held a Points Per Game (PPG) Home of 0.25, with Points Per Game (PPG) Home Opp PPG at 1.48.
• Girona had Points Per Game (PPG) Away of 2.5, with an identical Points Per Game (PPG) Away Opp PPG of 1.48.
• The Standard Deviation (SD) range for Almeria was 0-2, while Girona’s SD range was 1-4.
• Additionally, the first goal scored at home for Almeria was 22%, while Girona’s first goal conceded away was 33%.

The only puzzling aspect was Girona’s odds drifting from 1.65 to 1.95 on the day of the match. However, no discernible cause for this increase was found. While generally, odds below 2 are acceptable, my preference is when they drop below 1.8.

The match outcome added to the intrigue, concluding with a goalless draw. This begs the question: Could this loss have been anticipated, or did the odds movement hint at unforeseen factors influencing the match outcome?

In my opinion, no. As a trader, you need to deal with losses. Sometimes, goals for the underdog will be scored from nowhere, or the favorite will struggle to score one. If I were to trade this match once again, I would go for it, as my stats suggested. Losses are just a part of this business.

You can find other trades and current P/L in my updated spreadsheet with my outcomes.

Introduction to Transparent Approach:

I’ve decided to focus exclusively on matches selected using the 3:0CS strategy, and in this post, I’ll present the initial results of this approach. To witness my progress, I’ll consistently update a public spreadsheet with my outcomes. I won’t reveal my selections, encouraging you to follow my journey, learn from experiences, and foster your development.

Analyzing a Match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby:

Let’s take a closer look at a match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby. The Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 is 37, indicating one team’s dominance in both attack and defense. The ‘Magic No. -0.5‘ and Standard Deviation Away Min 1 suggests the potential for a high-scoring game.

Key PPG data reveals:

• Derby has a high PPG Away (L8) of 2.38, with a corresponding PPG Away Opp PPG of 1.3.
• Fleetwood Town, despite a lower PPG Home (L8) of 0.25, faced stronger opponents, evident in PPG Home Opp PPG 1.66.
• PPG Home vs Away Relevance of 2,48 emphasizes a significant difference between the two teams.

The statistical difference between the teams is significant, suggesting potential betting opportunities. However, this is not the sole factor in decision-making.

Additional factors, such as which team scores first, are considered. Fleetwood Town concedes the first goal at home in 75%, while Derby scores first away in 58%.

Match Outcome:

Entering the market with pre-kickoff odds at 15.5, Derby scored in the 27th minute, causing the odds to drop to 9.6-9.8. Exiting at this point resulted in a 58% ROI. The match concluded with a 1:3 score, as indicated by the Standard Deviation.

Despite the hiatus, I’ve remained active in the industry, participating in betting without regular blog and X updates. Additionally, I’m a member of the fantastic TTM community.

The TTM Community: A Valuable Resource
The TTM community is a goldmine of insights. Not only do they generously share working strategies, but they also foster an environment conducive to learning and personal growth in the sports trading realm. Their YouTube channel provides valuable insights, and the Discord server offers a wealth of information, making it a one-stop destination for enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge and skills, and all of it is free!

Introducing the 3:0 Correct Score Strategy:
In light of this, I’ve decided to introduce a new strategy on this blog based on the 3:0 Correct Score approach developed by Mark from TTM. The strategy, combined with match profiling and the right mindset, has the potential to be a solid foundation for building one’s bank. Find informative videos on the 3:0 Correct Score strategy here and here. Additionally, explore further details on match profiling using PPG here.

A Transparent Approach:
Moving forward, I will exclusively focus on matches using the 3:0CS strategy in upcoming blog posts. I’ll explain my match selections, but not all matches will be covered here. Instead, you can follow my progress through a live spreadsheet I’ll update consistently. I won’t disclose my selections in advance. The goal is for you to learn from my experiences, draw conclusions, and develop your path. I hope this approach positively contributes to your self-development. The stacking plan remains a standard 1% unit of the bankroll.

The plan was to return from my vacation at the end of July, but a series of unfortunate events forced me to extend my stay in a foreign land until the end of August. What was meant to be a dream vacation and an opportunity to show my kids a different part of the world didn’t start off as smoothly as I’d hoped.

I found myself in Indonesia, on the beautiful island of Bali, when my son had a terrible accident, resulting in a head injury that required surgery to remove blood from his brain. During this time, all my professional matters seemed insignificant. The three-hour surgery was successful, and my son quickly began to recover, leaving the hospital just a week after the operation. However, due to the injury, we couldn’t take long-distance flights, so our return was postponed.

This unexpected situation led to longer unplanned vacations and, consequently, unforeseen expenses. I had to take unpaid leave, but none of that mattered. My son’s health was the top priority. Currently, his condition prevents him from playing his favorite sport, soccer, or engaging in other physical activities. This is because it will take up to six months for his skull bone to fully heal, and he needs to be extremely cautious to prevent any shifting. However, he feels great and looks perfectly normal, except for the scars on his head. Still, we have to be vigilant to ensure he doesn’t accidentally hurt himself.

Despite the uncertainty ahead, I am much more at ease now. The doctors in Bali did everything in their power to heal my son, and for that, I am immensely grateful. It seems that my prayers were answered, although I must admit that while waiting for the surgery results, I aged a bit prematurely. It was a challenging time for my family, and we had to change our plans, cancel flights (including a visit to Komodo Island, which the kids were eager to explore), and postpone activities like snorkeling with turtles on the Gili Islands.

On the other hand, my daughter missed European cuisine after an extended stay in Asia. She longed for her favorite dishes, which she couldn’t experience in Asia. She yearned for a return to our home country and reunions with friends, family, and our beloved dog.

Despite it all, we supported each other and navigated through this challenging time together. I believe it strengthened our bonds. We were fortunate to have friends with us on the journey who provided help and support whenever needed.

As I mentioned at the beginning, my blog post was originally meant to be about something entirely different. However, in betting as in life, unexpected situations arise, and we must adapt. Financial losses are not the worst thing that can happen to us. We must approach everything in life with humility and gratitude.

Life threw us a curveball, and we faced it head-on, emerging stronger as a family. It’s a reminder that sometimes, the most important bets we make in life have nothing to do with money.