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Will you be dancing the Brazilian samba?

I’ve been trading football recently and I must admit that I was surprised by the negative results in South America, mainly Brazil. I had a noticeable decline in results which I decided to analyze.

When you trade as I do, basing your knowledge on statistics and the probability of the events in general, you do not limit your market entries. My aim is to trade as much as possible as the probability is on my side. However, this time alarm bell was raised.

What you have in mind when you think about Brazilian football?

Everyone’s answer is probably obvious. They have the best footballers in the world, virtuosos, great technical skills, joy of play, football is religion, etc.

You could say that the love of football is connected with samba and football rallies towards the opponent’s goal – with the love of dance performances at carnival parades.

If you were to name famous Brazilian footballers you would say without hesitation: Pele, Romario, Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, and nowadays Neymar.

I did a quick research to check what is wrong. Have a look at the data below on the 3 main Brazilian leagues.

Can you imagine that the leagues are low scoring games, with an average for 2.5+ goals per match is below 50%?

What we can do about it?

In my trading approach, I expect to have goal or goals in the second half.

In the above circumstances, I have two options:
1) avoid Brazilian leagues
2) change the approach and trade against the goals

As I like their joy of play and samba I will only adjust my trading rules so I can dance with them.

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Late goals – the probability that makes you rich?

You probably noticed on my twitter account I often publish a PrintScreen with late goals.

What is the secret underneath it? It is a pure probability, based on timing goal scores statistics.

If we look at the statistics from the major European leagues, they have one common thread. Just look at the graph below:

Spanish LaLiga season 19/20 (www.soccerstats.com )
Italian SerieA season 19/20 (www.soccerstats.com )
English PL season 19/20 (www.soccerstats.com )
German Bundesliga season 19/20 (www.soccerstats.com )

The quoted statistics clearly show that many more goals are scored at the end of the game than in the first minutes of the game. And looking objectively, it is logical. At the end of the game, the players are quite tired and the defenders make more and more mistakes. The changes in the line-up usually concern offensive players who, entering the square for the last several minutes, have a considerable physical advantage over-exhausted defenders. Also, usually in the last minutes the game opens, one or the other team chases the score and often puts everything on one card, which is not always successful for them.

How you can benefit from it?

Simply lay the current score on the CS market in the last 10-15 minutes.
However, the most important factor would be to lay below 2.0 odds.
My best experience is with odds below 1.5.

additional sources:
Timing of Goals Scored in Selected European and South American Soccer Leagues, FIFA and UEFA Tournaments and the Critical Phases of a Match

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Why it is good to Escape From Reality?

For most traders, the hardest part of trading is dealing with losses. New or struggling traders seem surprised when it happens, for some reason. The fact is that losses usually push traders to make their worst mistakes which can cause even greater losses.

How to deal with them?

First of all you need to have proper money management. As a Trader always protect your bank! Pro Traders could use different strategies, sometimes opposing each other, but they cut their loss quickly, or they already being prepared to lose some percentage of their stake. The main reason to stop loosing on any exchange is to a defined process, to each trading session. You need to have clear entry and exit points.  Repeating the schemas many times and measure them will give you the most important information about the particular strategy that you are using.

Secondly, you need to have a strong mindset! If you do not have it yet, then you will have to change your habits because you will be losing money! You need to overcome those obstacles. You need to admit that you were wrong and accept the loss.

This is the tricky part!

How to handle it if your strategy works and you have the losing run of 10 trades?

Today I will give you my approach of dealing with losses!

The first thing is my environment. I have to be comfortable before I enter the market. I never trade when I’m angry, hungry, and when the kids play around me. I don’t want to be interrupted by anything.

If my trade goes wrong, I check my entry and exit points. If it was good trade that gone bad, I move on to another one. If not, I am out of the market! I just don’t trade any more that day.

The same thing is when I encounter 3 losing runs (even though trades were correct). Basically I am pissed off, it is human nature, that it is difficult to accept it. So in this situation, I’m going out for a walk with headphones in my ears and listen to the music that expresses my feelings, and helps me to calm down.

In a nutshell escape – this is what I need!

Recently, my friend Marek Depa released an album called Escape From Reality, which for me is actually a break from this reality. The album is devoid of lyrics, the leading role is played by guitar appearing in various incarnations. If you like rock music bands like Dream Theater, Pink Floyds, Metallica, Led Zeppelin, and artists like Steve Vai and John Petrucci, then you definitely need to listen to this music! Devil’s Dance from his album is a heavy seven-string guitar song that expresses my feelings after a loss. However, my best songs are Escape from Reality and Coming back to life which makes me feel comfortable again! The great thing is that you can listen to the full album on youtube for free! However, if you like to get your own CD you can contact him directly on Facebook.

All in all, your goal as a trader is to get you in the right mood/mindset for both good and bad trades. These simple steps help me maintain my confidence and improve my results. With a fresh head, I avoid bankruptcy, and this my real goal!

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Why Bayern Monachium will win the Champions League 2020?

France Football has announced recently that there will be no 2020 Ballon d’Or award. The prestigious prize, awarded annually to the world’s best footballer, will not be held in 2020 because of the “lack of a sufficiently level playing field” caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
That is particularly bad news for Robert Lewandowski who seemed to be a front-runner after bagging 51 club goals for Bayern Munich. (top scorer in Bundesliga (34) in German Cup-DFB Pokal (6), and Champions League so far(11))

Why is this award related to Bayern’s winning the Champions League?

For reasons incomprehensible probably for Lewandowski and for me, it has just been announced that the award will not be granted this year.
Once Lewandowski was dissatisfied with the results of the plebiscite (placed 16 on Ballon d’Or 2016), wrote “le cabaret” on social media.

What can have an impact on motivation to a world-class footballer to play even better, who has been robbed of his dreams?

Lewandowski keeps setting new records in the Bundesliga, but his collection lacks the dreamed triumph in the champions league.

After Liverpool was eliminated from the tournament,
Bayern seems to be a favorite next to Manchester City to win the coronavirus edition of the Champions League.

Lewandowski, if he wants to prove that he is the best football player of the year, has a unique opportunity to do it, because this opportunity might never come again.

Odds for winning Champions League for Bayern are 4.7
In the semi-final, they can play against Manchester City or Juventus.
It could be a good value to be involved and exit a trade before semi-finals.

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Why low odds strong favorites pay you off?

In one of my previous posts, I have explained that anyone who wants to be a successful trader, needs to learn the basics and should start with trading pre-match. (check this out if you missed it -> pre-match-trading)

Today I will show you this in practice. The strategy itself focuses on low odds of strong favorites. In detail, you would learn when to enter and exit the market.
What is in my opinion the best selection process and how you profit from use freely available software to make it easier.

Step by step guide for LOSF strategy

  1. Choose the best match for the strategy.
    In my opinion one of the best website for free soccer predictions:
    www.prosoccer.gr
    The advantage of this website is that you can sort by current average odds, under/over 2.5 goals or predicted score, etc.
    Look at the example below:

Your aim is to have:

  • Avg Odds 1 (home favorite) to be below 1.7 and above 1.3
  • Tips to be 1 (home)
  • Predict Prob%1 to be above 60
  • Pred. Score 1 & 2 to be at least 2 goals difference in favor of the home team
  1. Time to enter the market
    The best time to enter the market is between 2-4 hours before the kick-off.
  2. Double-check current odds movements.
    I`m using Betfair charts and oddsportal.com In the oddsportal.com I focus on Asian market leader (Pinnacle) who updates odds the fastest and usually rest of the bookies follow them.
  1. Enter the market:
    In this example 3h before the kick-off.
    Placed back bet on Liverpool for 1.56 (matched) and placed lay bet for 1.54 (unmatched 2 ticks below)
  1. Check the market 1 hour before kick-off
    It is needed to make up a decision. Usually, at this point, your lay bet should have been matched.
    If not, then you have 2 options:
  • leave the market without profit
  • wait for the odds to steam.
    A big impact on the odds would have the lineups. Especially if the key-player is missing. The odd on the favorite will drift in this situation.
    Have a look at twitter announcement or official team website to get this info. Also, keep an eye on Betfair charts.
    In this example, official lineups have not got any surprise and 36 minutes before the kick-off lay bet was matched. The best option, in this case, is to hedge (spread all profit all over other outcomes), but as you are not losing at this point, you can wait and check if the price will steam more significantly. (which not happen often)
  1. Check the market 5min before kick-off or just right before the start and exit the trade. Never GO Inplay! I hedged as the match has started.

Why this LOSF strategy works?

The answer is simple, people (gamblers) push the price down on the favorite, expecting that teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Liverpool, etc will easily win.
Close to kick-off more bettors try to be involved, so more money is available and trigger the market. There is no hidden secret behind it.

As you can notice ROI was only 1,29% (2 ticks, for 1 tick it would be 0,65%). It is indeed not too much, but what is most important you must practice repeatability in order to be confident about the strategy which is very low risk. After 100 trades you will see that it pays off.

If you like it please subscribe to my newsletter and I will let you know how to calculate the risk of bankruptcy and become a profitable sports trader.

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Will you help to save the industry?

According to the latest research by the Malta Gaming Authority (MGA), Malta’s licensed sports betting operators are facing a 40% decline in annual forecast revenues for 2020.

A survey carried out in April by the MGA information and research unit showed that B2C license holders predict a 40% drop in revenue due to the cancellation of sporting events on the outbreak of coronavirus.

A total of 151 B2C operators were included in the Covid-19 impact study. Total revenue from gambling (sports-betting) is expected to fall by 12% in 2020.

The downward trend continues in other countries as well.

Huge drops in turnover of Italian sports betting operators were announced.

Revenue from online sports betting for the 18 largest bookmakers in Italy dropped dramatically between March and April when Covid-19 stopped most sporting events.

New market data show that revenues from online betting on the largest sports operators in the country fell by 57% to just EUR 19.4 million in April, compared with EUR 45.6 million in March.

Revenues in March have already fallen by 43% from EUR 80 million recorded in February, which was the last month in which the sports schedule was running smoothly.

In the UK, The British Horseracing Authority (BHA), fearing huge financial losses, sought to open the racetracks in May. According to estimates made by this organization (in April), if the ban continues until the end of June, the horse racing industry could lose about 200 million pounds.

The loss anticipated by BHA would account for around 13% of the annual revenue from this discipline, which, according to its representatives, may result in “significant economic and social difficulties.”

BHA to deal with the current problem caused by the COVID-19 virus established the “Resumption of Racing Group“, which is a group whose task is to find the optimal solution for the safe resumption of racing. One of the group’s first plans is to open several racing tracks where teams and competitors would be properly separated to comply with quarantine rules.

As you can see, saving business goes in the right direction, because horse racing is set to return on Monday, June 1, with Newcastle planning to host the first meeting since lockdown began.

This is great news for us traders. Pre-race Horse trading is a great place to practice scalping.
Remember to start with small stakes because you don’t want to rescue the industry with your own money!

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Yes, it really is, The Bundesliga is back!

German Bundesliga as the first of the leading leagues in Europe resumed their games in the age of the coronavirus pandemic.

In Bundesliga, matches are played under many conditions. First of all, in empty stands, and players must take special precautions. They are prohibited from spitting, running into the field together, greeting by a handshake, or hugging after scoring a goal. In such cases, they may only touch their elbows or shoes. The substitutes will have to wear masks.

As I mentioned before the restart of competition you need to watch the motivations and the form of players more closely. According to statisticians, a two-month break in the competition negatively affected the form of players. The number of kilometers runs lower than the average from the season, fewer sprints, the number of shots less than before. However, this did not significantly affect the result of the derby, in which Borussia Dortmund demolished Schalke. In other matches, an unexpected draw in Leipzig.

For me it was a slow start, however, I have managed to exit my only one Saturday`s trade with green, which is always a positive thing.

Usually, Sunday is my family day, so I will not have time for trading unless we have very late games.
I do not bet, however on Sunday matches you should have your eyes open on Lewandowski, who probably will score 2 or more goals for Bayern.

CU Green!

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Decontamination with alcohol during the COVID-19 outbreaks?

Have you noticed that fewer sports trading opportunities, lockdown, may have other disturbing effects on our health?
In isolation, we increasingly reach for alcohol.

We drink to relax, forget about a problem, or simply – out of boredom. Meanwhile, alcohol is the strongest legal, widely available, and acceptable range depressant, and its relaxing effect is only temporary. In many people, worse mood and anxiety build up after 3 hours of consumption.

The boundary between ‘entertainment’ drinking and addiction is extremely thin. Especially in the period of high, long-term tension and stress – and these are the emotions caused by the current pandemic situation in the country and in the world. Staying in a small, closed space, with other family members 24 hours a day – for which we were not prepared and to which we are not accustomed – we should absolutely give up alcohol.

Although quarantine is conducive to the more frequent use of alcohol, if we decide to drink it, it is good to use common sense and make sure that our drinking is not risky or harmful, as it can cause you to lose control over your own life. Too frequent and uncontrolled drinking can lead to serious problems. Experts point out that alcohol problems can affect anyone, regardless of age, gender, social status, or occupation.

Similarities Between Alcoholism and Gambling Addiction

There is a large percentage of people who suffer from alcoholism that have issues with gambling addiction, and vice versa. While there could be several reasons as to why someone may experience both, many researchers are looking at the similarities between the two addictions as the answer. The underlying reactions that are triggered in the brain when someone consumes alcohol are very similar to when someone gambles. In fact, the brain will release dopamine after someone gambles, the same process that happens in addictive drugs. The way these two reactions can stack on each other makes the potential of alcoholism and gambling addiction as co-occurring disorders even more likely.

Those potential alcohol problems can affect you as a trader. As researchers say alcohol addiction can have an impact on your trading. It is an easy way to become a gambler.
So please stay focus during this pandemic period. Do not drink too much.

Remember when sports back soon, never trade when drinking alcohol, even avoid small pint of beer!

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What happens on May 25?

Football is suspended in all European countries apart from Belarus because of the coronavirus pandemic.

European football leagues have been given a May 25 deadline to inform governing body UEFA of their plans to restart their domestic competitions.

UEFA has made it clear that it wants its member associations to complete their domestic seasons rather than abandon them. It also hopes to finish the Champions League and Europa League competitions.

If league seasons cannot be finished, it said national associations would need to select clubs to qualify for European competitions.

What is the current status of major European leagues?

  • Dutch Eredivisie – cut short its season already and said there would be no title awarded and no relegations or promotions.
  • French Ligue 1 – it could not resume the 2019-20 season, was told by the French prime minister.
  • Polish Ekstraklasa – is set to resume the 2019-2020 football season at the end of May (plan approved by the Polish prime minister).
  • German Bundesliga – is hoping to resume May 9, but it needs the go-ahead from national and state government and health officials, and it’s unclear when that unanimous approval will come through.
  • Italian Serie A – clubs have the green light from the government to return to training on May 18, with matches behind closed doors tentatively slated to resume at the beginning of June.
  • English Premier League – will meet on Friday to determine the next steps, but they’re reportedly hoping to be training by May 18 in advance of a June 8 return to action.
  • Spanish La Liga – remains in a holding pattern, with Spain’s health minister cautioning against expecting any soccer to resume before “the summer” followed by Spanish government gave the O.K. to individual training starting next week.
  • Danish Superliga – plan to resume on May 17 and finish by the end of July.
  • Portuguese Primeira Liga – country’s president announcing that lockdown restrictions are beginning to ease on May 3, there’s perhaps a pathway to finishing the season.
  • Russian Premier League – hopes to resume in late June and finish by Aug. 2.
  • Swedish Allsvenskan – season was postponed, and the league’s clubs train while they await instruction on when it will actually begin the 2020 season, with late May or early June looking like the most likely outcome.
  • Turkish Super Lig – June 12/13 reportedly appears to be a tentative return date for matches behind closed doors, but the Super Lig’s fate is slated to be determined in the first week of May when the Turkish Football Federation meets to discuss the league’s future.
  • Belgian Pro League – clubs were set to vote on Monday to ratify a ruling that would end the season as is and crown Club Brugge as champion, but that vote was postponed by a week instead, lending some to think that perhaps there’s a path for the rest of the season to be played after all.
  • Austrian Bundesliga – clubs were given the green light to return to training in a limited capacity, and matches could follow in mid-May.

It seems there is a green light that in May we could be able to back to trading. Please keep in mind that you are a trader, so do not rush with your decisions when entering the market. We do not know how players have been affected by this coronavirus period. All matches would be played behind closed doors. If your strategy is based on pre-match stats, just put them into rubbish.

Focus on price movements and market itself so predict unpredictable scores.

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How does the new gambling law affect you?

You may not be aware but from 14 April 2020, The GB Gambling Commission’s ban on using credit cards to fund gambling.

What does it mean in a nutshell?

The new requirements mean that UK gambling operators cannot accept credit cards or payments made through e-wallets such as PayPal or Revolut.

However as Gambling Commission clarified, gambling operators will ultimately be responsible for only accepting e-wallet payments where it is satisfied that the provider will take action to prevent payments by credit card once the ban comes into force on 14 April 2020.

The ban comes after the Gambling Commission’s review of online gambling, and the Government’s Review of Gaming Machines and Social Responsibility Measure.

According to the research a total of 24 million adults in the UK gamble and over 10 million of those doing so online. It also highlights that 22% of online gamblers using credit cards are classed as problem gamblers.

The aim of these new regulations is to help protect those most at risk from gambling money they do not have.

What does it mean to you as a trader?

First of all, do not risk more than you can afford to lose, as trading is a high-risk activity.

If you are a newbie, you have to focus on the learning process and use small stakes. Debit cards would be enough to transfer a few pounds for this purpose or you can use training mode.

If you are an experienced trader then you do not need credit cards too, as your aim is to withdraw money from betting exchange.

However, If you are worried that you spend more than you should on gambling you can call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 for free advice on how to stay in control or get support: https://www.begambleaware.org/