As I have mentioned many times in trading / betting the most important thing is to focus not on winnings but on losers. in fact, calculating the risk of bankruptcy and testing the strategy is the most important task in order to have the data for analysis.

Recently I stumbled upon a great article about losing runs. Author Steve Jones from CD Systems educates you on strike rates and how they can guide you as per losing runs and what to expect. The full story is available here: Don`t Go Broke

In a nutshell, Steve calculates your losing run based on your strike rate. Look at the table from his 650 bets:

I`ve decided to check the stats with bigger data and some simple football strategies. I have backtested data for over0,5 goals market before kick-off. There is over 92% chance that the game will end with at least 1 goal for 30283 samples. Have a look a the results:

From the tested data we have encountered only 1 sequence of losing bets 4 times in a row. If we compare it to Steve`s table we have got similar results. His table ends with a 90% strike rate and a possible sequence of 5 losing runs.

I`ve added additional tests, for the same sample of data, but filtered the matches when the 0-0 draw was still in 30mins (14393 games). Below are the results:

With an 83% strike rate, we should get at worst 7 losing bets in a row, as the above table shows we got lucky and have only 5.

Steve`s samples and my additional examples show you that there is a correlation between strike rate and losing run. I hope that the table above makes you more confident about probability and helps you to calculate your bank size and give you some idea about protecting your bankroll.

Betting / Trading is math!

Today football fans will sit down to watch their favorites at the European Championship 2020. Due to the pandemic, the entire tournament was delayed, so fans are waiting more impatiently for the first whistle. This year the tournament differs in the number of teams taking part, there are as many as 24 of them. It is the second situation in history that such a large number of teams take part in the Euro. The first such tournament was held in 2016 in France. In Euro 2020, the teams were divided into 6 groups. In the group stage, only 8 teams will be eliminated – the six that will take the last, fourth place in their groups, and the two weakest from the third places. The champions and vice-champions of the groups and the four best teams from among those who will be placed No. 3 will advance to the 1/8 finals. The tournament also differs in that we have 11 hosts, not 2-3 as in previous years.

Euro 2020 Predictor shows what a tournament that everyone will live for throughout the month can look like. Who will come out of the group? Who will play with whom on the group stage? Who has the easiest and most difficult path to the grand final in London? The Euro 2020 predictor is a lot of fun that you can find on UEFA’s website:
https://gaming.uefa.com/en/uefaeuro2020tournamentpredictor

I don’t usually trade international matches, but this year I’ll make an exception.

My strategy for Euro2020 will be based on the Lay the Leader (LTL) formula.

1) In the group stage, I will take into account those games with odds for a draw in the range of 3 – 3.5 before kick-off.

2) Entry into the market will take place after a goal is scored (up to 75 minutes at the latest)

3) I will consider also other matches that have 1 goal difference in the last 10-15 minutes of the game if the losing team will chase for a goal.

All my picks will be available on my Twitter account.

Good luck, use small stakes and have fun watching Euro 2020.

In April I have tested for you Lay Under 2.5 goals (LU25) method so it is time to highlights the results. (you can read more about it here)
All the bets you could have tracked on my Twitter account. As I was lack of time, I did only 29 samples, and a few of them at the beginning of May.

My strike rate for those 29 bets was a decent 41,4%. I would expect a correction, which you can notice on the chart that just had started at the end of the trial period.

The longest losing streak was 6 bets, but you should expect more, like up to 10 or even more.

Let’s compare the results to the statistical data for the last few years.

From the first PrintScreen, you could have noticed that my avg entry time was 25min and my avg entry LU25 was 1,49, and the strike rate 41,4%. Based on n the statistical data I should have been close to a 32,7% strike rate on the O2.5 Goals market at 25min. It means that my totally random selection was better than good. Keep in mind that it is still very small data, but at least you know what you should expect with the entry point I have selected.

If you are the trader/punter that takes into account also in-play stats, please focus on the price entry which is in my opinion the main key (it is just math!) A combination of those two could give you even better results long term.

Finally do not forget to check frequently the values on the risk of ruin simulator, as your main aim is to avoid bankruptcy:

I have many new followers who focus on my tipping bets, even though I did not prove earlier than this LU25@25min is profitable. I hope you do not follow anyone blindly, and you focus on the learning process.

Appendix: recorded data (all the 29 games outcomes)

The most popular market next to Match Odds is the Over 2.5 goals. If we look at the pre-game statistics for above 100000 games in the last six years it shows us, that about 49% of the matches finished with over 2.5 goals in a football match. If we convert the implied chances to odds, it gives us information that odds have to be at 2.03 on average or higher in order to be profitable.

Probably you already know that it is better to wait for better odds. What do the stats say? I will only consider a 0-0 draw till 20-25 mins.

If you look at the table above you will notice that we should back at 3.0 and lay at 1.5 in general. We do not consider here pre-game odds for over2.5 goals. However, if we take into consideration pre-game odds above 2.0 on over2.5 goals market then the stats would suggest we should back at 3.5 and lay at 1.4 odds.

It is very difficult to get the right odds at the right time, especially as the bookies and market know the math as well. Obviously, this figure would vary depending on the league and other factors but it’s just a rule of thumb.

If you consider entering the market you should always consider true odds value and not only implied odds.

In April, I will try to do for you another test, that would be transparent on my Twitter account. My aim would be to enter the market around 25min when still 0-0 with laying odds at 1.5. Let’s call the method: LU25. At the end of the month, I will show you the results. For each game, I will use a 1point liability.

First of all, I wanted to remind you that I decided to test the bets for LTD below 1.9 odds with a score of 0-0 in the second half. (you can read more about it here)

On my Twitter account, you could have tracked all the bets I have focused on in-play during the testing period started in December 2020. My aim was to have 100 samples, however, due to lack of time I have finished with 65 documented samples. The testing period is time-consuming so forgive me if you expected more. However, the numbers I have and statistics for the previous last 5 years should give enough overview about this strategy.

As you remember from the previous post chances that there will be at least one goal are between 49-61% in 70-60 minute period. My strike rate for those 65 samples equals 47,7%. if I subtract the 1-1 score (7,7% games) then my LTD ends with 40%. In total -5,3point loss, the longest losing streak was 10 bets.

Let’s compare the results to the statistical data for the last few years.

From the previous screen, you could have noticed that my avg entry time was 69min and my avg entry LTD was 1,82. Based on the statistical data I should have been close to 49% on O0.5% and 43% on strike rate on LTD. My numbers were a bit worse, due to the small sample data.

Odds and Probability have an inversely proportional relationship, this means that as the expected probability of an outcome increases the odds decrease, and as the probability decreases then the odds increase. In our case, as we have statistical data we can calculate odds based on the previous win%. The above numbers show us, that we will end up breakeven or even with a small loss as we need to add Betfair commission to it.

In a nutshell, in order to be profitable if we enter the market in 70 min then the odds need to be below 1.75, if we enter in 65 min then odds have to be below 1,91. It is just simple math, that people do not take into consideration.

It means that you have to be selective and not enter a market when the price is not right there.

As you can see my avg odds at 69min were at 1,82 so it not even close to odd 1,78(or 1,75 in 70min) which eventually would lead to bankruptcy!

I need to admit that I have bigger samples of this kind of bet, which documented only for my own purpose. However, this is not valid for you, as you should not believe people whatever they say without transparent proven records. I will share it with you as I like you to focus on other factors as well. Here are the results:

According to my 223 bets, I have got 5,56point profit. avg entry time 67min and win% 47%. If we look at the statistics data when we enter the market at 67min then in order to be profitable we need to enter the market with odds below 1.85 and win% above 46%. However, as always I want you to focus on the main factor which is the payoff ratio.

Look a the values I have added to risk of ruin simulator:

Expectancy, win%, and payoff ratio are at the low level, that in some randomized results you can go bankrupt. So even if you might think you have a profitable strategy you need to calculate your own risk of ruin.

I have many new followers who focus on my tipping bets, even though I did not prove earlier than this LTD@1.9 is profitable. I hope you do not follow anyone blindly, and you focus on the learning process.

I just want to admit that I will not carry on with these LTD@1.9 bets.
The reason behind this is:
1) time-consuming,
2) not so many bets, which pass tighten filters in order to be in profit,
3) in my opinion this strategy could be automated however in the long term you can expect a tiny profit only.

If you want to learn how the exchange works, I strongly encourage you to subscribe to my newsletter from which you will get practical knowledge about different strategies.

Appendix: recorded data (all the 65 games outcomes)

Every football trader knows this market. There is plenty of information on the internet on how to trades this market in the first half, second half, the whole match, etc. How to choose the best matches for this particular strategy. However, I have noticed a lack of information that includes a basic factor which is probability.

Trading is math and should be simple.

So if you have 50/50 % then in order to be in profit you should lay the odds below 2, e.g 1.9 In order to get an odds @1.9, you should wait till 60-70mins ( it depends on the match if a strong favorite playing, a red card in the match, etc).

If we look at the statistics from different leagues, at least 1 second-half goal is required to be scored in the lastest period of the football match. Let’s check what do the stats say about it. To make it simple I will only consider a 0-0 draw till 60-70mins.

In the last 5years seasons after 60mins of play over 0.5 goals scored in a match looks like (statistics based on www.cgmbet.com software) :

60min -> 61,19% (20513 games)

65min -> 55,19% (17768 games)

70min -> 48,67% (15509 games)

In a nutshell, it means that you have about a 50% chance to get 1 goal if you enter a market in the last 30-20mins and the score is still 0-0.

Looks simple? Of course, it is, and has to be!

Trading does not have to be complicated like basic math isn’t it too.

It requires only to be patient, and proper money management.

Next month I`m going to check this set & forget system (I will not be removing liability after a goal). My aim is to get about 100 bets to check if this is a profitable system. Follow me on Twitter as I will call the matches in-play with information about the odds and minutes of entering the trade/bet so the test would be transparent. For each game, I will use a 1point liability.

CU Green