Change is often seen as a way to improve things, but sometimes it can have the opposite effect. However, it’s essential not to be quick to judge as it takes a lot of data to determine if something is good or bad. The most important thing is to measure everything to have an overall view of the situation.

Recently, I noticed that the curve on my betting chart was going in the wrong direction. So, I decided to measure everything and have an overall view of the situation. I found that there were some negative aspects that were affecting the positive ones. This is why it’s important to look at all aspects of a situation, not just one or two.

Looking at my recent results, I saw that there was a loss of -8.25 points since the beginning of the year. While not a tragedy, the trend seemed to be in the direction of loss. I discovered that the effectiveness of my betting strategy decreased when playing matches where the favorite had odds below 2. The percentage decreased from 73.4% last year to 71.7% this year. Additionally, when playing with odds of 1.4, there were still a lot of matches that had GoalBeforeOdds (15%), making it seem like it wouldn’t be profitable in the long run.

A potential solution could be to return to the previous criteria, where there were more events. However, for the current selection, the goal statistics in the second half have improved (85% to 81.9% last year). Implied Odds for 85% is 1.18, so the FHG filters can be used to bet over 0.5 goals in the second half at 1.25 (80% implied odds). It may be hard to get this rate in some matches, but time will tell.

In conclusion, it’s essential to not be too quick to judge changes and to measure everything to have an overall view of the situation. Till the end of the year, I will be recording those new bets related to SHG.

Appendix: recorded data FHG (the latest bets)

First of all congratulations to the winner. Argentina and its leader Lionel Messi made this tournament exciting until the last whistle.

During the World Cup 2022, I placed bets using the SHG method, which involves betting on games with at least 4 shots on target and odds equal to or above 1.27. You can read more about this method at the link provided. I shared all of my bets on my Twitter account.

As expected, few games met the criteria set by the SHG method. Out of the 48 games in the group stage, I was only able to place bets on 2 matches. These were England vs. Iran, with halftime odds of 1.27 for another goal, and Wales vs. Iran, with halftime odds of 1.4.

Both of these bets turned out to be winners, resulting in a 0.65 point profit for me. There was one additional game that met my filters, but I did not place a bet on it as it involved my own team (Poland vs. Saudi Arabia).

Overall, there were not many games that met the criteria set by the SHG method. To understand why this was the case, it may be helpful to look at the stats from the group stage.

During the World Cup, only 24 out of 48 games had a goal scored before halftime, which is a surprisingly low statistic for this major event. The market was expecting a second-half goal in many of these games, but still, only 75% of the games ended with a goal being scored.

To break even on bets placed on all the group stage matches, the implied odds for a first-half goal would have to be 2, and the implied odds for a second-half goal would have to be 1.33, based on the probability of these events occurring.

As I mentioned previously (during Euro 2020), it can be challenging to rely on statistics for betting purposes during a tournament, as there is often not a lot of data available. It is important to be patient and prepared for the possibility of having few opportunities to place bets.

The 2022 FIFA World Cup starts on Sunday (November 20). The tournament takes place in Qatar, hence the autumn start date. It is one of the most controversial World Cups in history and the last with 32 participants.

In recent months, there has been a lot of talk about the inhumane treatment of foreign workers who prepared the World Cup infrastructure and discrimination based on sexual orientation. According to various accounts, blue-collar workers lived in appalling conditions, had no access to food and water, and were often not paid on time or at all. As a result, several thousand people could lose their lives during work.

The Qatari side refutes these allegations, and calls the activists calling for a boycott of the event “badly informed”. At the same time, he assures everyone who comes to the tournament in Qatar is welcome. At the same time, visitors are warned against “publicly displaying” their sexual preferences. There will also be restrictions on alcohol consumption.

Other controversies include the fact that during the summer when the World Cup is usually held, temperatures in Qatar are so high that they would be dangerous to the health of the fans, not to mention the players themselves. For this reason, the tournament – for the first time in history – was moved to late autumn, i.e. in the middle of the season of most domestic leagues. According to many, this puts at risk the health of players overloaded with a busy calendar.

Will it have an impact on betting? you never know. Let’s check the latest few World Cup results and FHG & SHG chances at the group stage.

The bookies will also expect it, so there is a chance the odds would be reflected in general old statistics.

Can you rely on it? There are no consistent results, and if you take into account that for the first time it is played in autumn you can expect the unexpected. If you decided to bet please use small stakes only, there are so many different factors that could have an impact on your betting.

My strategy for WorldCup2022 will be based on the Second Half-Goals (SHG) formula.

Based on the previous results I will consider only second-half betting at the group stage when the odds would be close to the average of 1.27 on the next goals market overX,5+, and shots on target at half-time would be equal to 4. I will not bet on the final rounds, as there are fewer goals in general.

There will not be many games probably, but as always all my picks will be available on my Twitter account.

Good luck if playing and have fun watching World Cup 2022

We are close to starting the new season in the major leagues. So it is time, to sum up, the last 3 months. There were a bit fewer games, but still, I managed to have over 200 selected games.

You can have a look at the previous results: https://prosportstrader.com/fhg-bets-the-way-to-go/ For the selected period I had 200 selections, where 91 (45%) were missed due to the goal scored before odds (GBO) was reached. It means that I have a repeatable process where about 45% of the selected games are missed.

I`m putting all the games on the same spreadsheet so we can track all FHG results since I`ve started betting on odds 2.

For the selected period I had 305 selections, where 138 (45%) were missed due to the goal scored before odds (GBO) was reached.

My strike rate for those 167 bets was 53,9%, which is equal to 1,86 if we convert it to implied odds. That is good results, but as you notice compared to previous results correction already come.

The longest losing streak (including missed bets [bets from no. 145 to 157]) was 7 bets, which is expected (for 200 samples). In my previous post, I have written that 7 or 8 losing bets in a row are expected in the future, so the future is now 🙂 Remember it is math and it is calculated over a large sample of data. If the strike rate is about 54%  you can expect a losing run of 14 within 5000 samples.

7% ROI is fine, and our risk of ruin calculator shows positive outcomes.

All that is required is to be patient, as you need to follow the selections, even though some days you will not get any (as you could notice during the summer leagues period)

I will continue betting and posting my selection on Twitter on over 0,5 FHG set & forget system with odds equal to 2.

CU Green

Appendix: recorded data FHG

It’s been over a month since I provided my statistics HTLTD, so now it’s time to update the results with the set & forget approach. As I have mentioned last month, I decided to bet on over 0,5 FHG when the odds reach 2. The main reason was that I assumed that I should get a bit better results. (full story) The game selection process remains unchanged.

For the selected period I had 105 selections, where 47 (45%) were missed due to the goal scored before odds (GBO) were reached.

My strike rate for those 58 bets was 56,9%, which is equal to 1,76 if we convert it to implied odds. That is very good results, but a small sample size, so I`m expecting that correction will come when more games would be played. As it is set & forget system my avg win will be always 0,98, which in a nutshell gives me an edge long term, as it is above the current 0,76 metric.

The longest losing streak was 4 bets, which is less than expected. Please do not freak out if you notice in my selections 7 or 8 losing bets in a row in the future, it is just math and it is calculated over a large sample of data. If the strike rate is about 50% (implied odds 2) you can expect a losing run of 13 within 5000 samples.

13% ROI is great, but do not go overexcited as the correction will come. if you add all current values to the risk of ruin calculator it will show long-term positive outcomes. The main aim of this Coin flipping method is to be right more often than wrong

People have habits of changing things if they do not go according to their winning plan. The main reason is that they do not understand the key factor – math as the whole betting/trading industry is part of it.

All my selections (over 350 games including stats in my previous post) since January show positive outcomes long term. Last month I have decided to make it more simple, as I was expecting similar/a bit better results. Current statistics show that it was a good choice.

Time is money, and this case makes it true. I do not need to spend time during the day and follow my selections. I can place all of them in advance, and check the results at the end of the day. There are many trading systems that require you to be more engaged, but FHG in my opinion does not need to be the one. Make it simple, and believe in probability.

I will continue betting and posting my selection on Twitter on over 0,5 FHG set & forget system with odds equal to 2.

Appendix: recorded data FHG