After a series of successful trades, boasting an average ROI of 37%, the inevitable first loss occurred. On Sunday, January 14th, the underdog Almeria faced off against title contender Girona.

The statistics for this match appeared promising:

• Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 = 26
• Magic No. = 2
• Almeria held a Points Per Game (PPG) Home of 0.25, with Points Per Game (PPG) Home Opp PPG at 1.48.
• Girona had Points Per Game (PPG) Away of 2.5, with an identical Points Per Game (PPG) Away Opp PPG of 1.48.
• The Standard Deviation (SD) range for Almeria was 0-2, while Girona’s SD range was 1-4.
• Additionally, the first goal scored at home for Almeria was 22%, while Girona’s first goal conceded away was 33%.

The only puzzling aspect was Girona’s odds drifting from 1.65 to 1.95 on the day of the match. However, no discernible cause for this increase was found. While generally, odds below 2 are acceptable, my preference is when they drop below 1.8.

The match outcome added to the intrigue, concluding with a goalless draw. This begs the question: Could this loss have been anticipated, or did the odds movement hint at unforeseen factors influencing the match outcome?

In my opinion, no. As a trader, you need to deal with losses. Sometimes, goals for the underdog will be scored from nowhere, or the favorite will struggle to score one. If I were to trade this match once again, I would go for it, as my stats suggested. Losses are just a part of this business.

You can find other trades and current P/L in my updated spreadsheet with my outcomes.

I’m back to share the first outcomes of my latest strategy based on the 3:0 Correct Score (3:0CS) approach. In my previous post, I explained the reasons for my break and introduced the 3:0CS strategy inspired by Mark from TTM.

Introduction to Transparent Approach:

I’ve decided to focus exclusively on matches selected using the 3:0CS strategy, and in this post, I’ll present the initial results of this approach. To witness my progress, I’ll consistently update a public spreadsheet with my outcomes. I won’t reveal my selections, encouraging you to follow my journey, learn from experiences, and foster your development.

Analyzing a Match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby:

Let’s take a closer look at a match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby. The Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 is 37, indicating one team’s dominance in both attack and defense. The ‘Magic No. -0.5‘ and Standard Deviation Away Min 1 suggests the potential for a high-scoring game.

Key PPG data reveals:

• Derby has a high PPG Away (L8) of 2.38, with a corresponding PPG Away Opp PPG of 1.3.
• Fleetwood Town, despite a lower PPG Home (L8) of 0.25, faced stronger opponents, evident in PPG Home Opp PPG 1.66.
• PPG Home vs Away Relevance of 2,48 emphasizes a significant difference between the two teams.

The statistical difference between the teams is significant, suggesting potential betting opportunities. However, this is not the sole factor in decision-making.

Additional factors, such as which team scores first, are considered. Fleetwood Town concedes the first goal at home in 75%, while Derby scores first away in 58%.

Match Outcome:

Entering the market with pre-kickoff odds at 15.5, Derby scored in the 27th minute, causing the odds to drop to 9.6-9.8. Exiting at this point resulted in a 58% ROI. The match concluded with a 1:3 score, as indicated by the Standard Deviation.

It’s been a while since my last blog update, and I owe you an explanation for my absence. Recent personal experiences during my vacation prompted a shift in my priorities, leading me to allocate more time to various aspects of life than to trading and betting. Additionally, the FHG & SHG method I previously shared wasn’t yielding the expected results, as it did in the past. Essentially, I decided to take a break from the blog and betting.

Despite the hiatus, I’ve remained active in the industry, participating in betting without regular blog and X updates. Additionally, I’m a member of the fantastic TTM community.

The TTM Community: A Valuable Resource
The TTM community is a goldmine of insights. Not only do they generously share working strategies, but they also foster an environment conducive to learning and personal growth in the sports trading realm. Their YouTube channel provides valuable insights, and the Discord server offers a wealth of information, making it a one-stop destination for enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge and skills, and all of it is free!

Introducing the 3:0 Correct Score Strategy:
In light of this, I’ve decided to introduce a new strategy on this blog based on the 3:0 Correct Score approach developed by Mark from TTM. The strategy, combined with match profiling and the right mindset, has the potential to be a solid foundation for building one’s bank. Find informative videos on the 3:0 Correct Score strategy here and here. Additionally, explore further details on match profiling using PPG here.

A Transparent Approach:
Moving forward, I will exclusively focus on matches using the 3:0CS strategy in upcoming blog posts. I’ll explain my match selections, but not all matches will be covered here. Instead, you can follow my progress through a live spreadsheet I’ll update consistently. I won’t disclose my selections in advance. The goal is for you to learn from my experiences, draw conclusions, and develop your path. I hope this approach positively contributes to your self-development. The stacking plan remains a standard 1% unit of the bankroll.

Change is often seen as a way to improve things, but sometimes it can have the opposite effect. However, it’s essential not to be quick to judge as it takes a lot of data to determine if something is good or bad. The most important thing is to measure everything to have an overall view of the situation.

Recently, I noticed that the curve on my betting chart was going in the wrong direction. So, I decided to measure everything and have an overall view of the situation. I found that there were some negative aspects that were affecting the positive ones. This is why it’s important to look at all aspects of a situation, not just one or two.

Looking at my recent results, I saw that there was a loss of -8.25 points since the beginning of the year. While not a tragedy, the trend seemed to be in the direction of loss. I discovered that the effectiveness of my betting strategy decreased when playing matches where the favorite had odds below 2. The percentage decreased from 73.4% last year to 71.7% this year. Additionally, when playing with odds of 1.4, there were still a lot of matches that had GoalBeforeOdds (15%), making it seem like it wouldn’t be profitable in the long run.

A potential solution could be to return to the previous criteria, where there were more events. However, for the current selection, the goal statistics in the second half have improved (85% to 81.9% last year). Implied Odds for 85% is 1.18, so the FHG filters can be used to bet over 0.5 goals in the second half at 1.25 (80% implied odds). It may be hard to get this rate in some matches, but time will tell.

In conclusion, it’s essential to not be too quick to judge changes and to measure everything to have an overall view of the situation. Till the end of the year, I will be recording those new bets related to SHG.

Appendix: recorded data FHG (the latest bets)

First of all congratulations to the winner. Argentina and its leader Lionel Messi made this tournament exciting until the last whistle.

During the World Cup 2022, I placed bets using the SHG method, which involves betting on games with at least 4 shots on target and odds equal to or above 1.27. You can read more about this method at the link provided. I shared all of my bets on my Twitter account.

As expected, few games met the criteria set by the SHG method. Out of the 48 games in the group stage, I was only able to place bets on 2 matches. These were England vs. Iran, with halftime odds of 1.27 for another goal, and Wales vs. Iran, with halftime odds of 1.4.

Both of these bets turned out to be winners, resulting in a 0.65 point profit for me. There was one additional game that met my filters, but I did not place a bet on it as it involved my own team (Poland vs. Saudi Arabia).

Overall, there were not many games that met the criteria set by the SHG method. To understand why this was the case, it may be helpful to look at the stats from the group stage.

During the World Cup, only 24 out of 48 games had a goal scored before halftime, which is a surprisingly low statistic for this major event. The market was expecting a second-half goal in many of these games, but still, only 75% of the games ended with a goal being scored.

To break even on bets placed on all the group stage matches, the implied odds for a first-half goal would have to be 2, and the implied odds for a second-half goal would have to be 1.33, based on the probability of these events occurring.

As I mentioned previously (during Euro 2020), it can be challenging to rely on statistics for betting purposes during a tournament, as there is often not a lot of data available. It is important to be patient and prepared for the possibility of having few opportunities to place bets.