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The New Season Enters the Betting Phase

As the new football season kicks into gear across Europe’s top leagues, we’re already 6-7 matchdays in, and it’s the perfect moment to start gearing up for a fresh approach. With the 8th round of games just around the corner, I’m preparing to launch into a new betting season with a simple yet effective strategy.

This time, I’ll be focusing on the over 1.5 goals market. It’s an efficient method because, statistically, most matches see at least two goals. The beauty of this market is that it doesn’t require high-risk betting—just a solid understanding of the game and team dynamics. My approach will be a set-and-forget strategy, where I’ll place in-play bets between the 15th and 25th minute of the match, but only if the score is still 0-0. This allows me to capitalize on games that are likely to open up as teams start pushing for goals.

I’ll be focusing mainly on matches where there’s a clear favorite, using metrics like points-per-game (PPG) to identify games where goals are more likely. However, my decision to enter will also depend on the odds being offered. I’ll compare the live odds to the average odds from both the current and previous seasons to ensure I’m getting value before placing a bet.

This strategy offers a balance of simplicity and efficiency, and I’m optimistic about the potential returns this season. As always, I’ll be sharing my updates and results, so stay tuned!

Remember, the goal is to keep things fun, straightforward, and profitable. Here’s to an exciting season ahead with plenty of goals!

Catch you all soon!

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Analysis and Insights: Betting Against Favorites in Euro 2024 Playoffs

Following the group stage analysis and the conclusion of the Euro 2024 tournament, which was deservedly won by the Spanish team, it’s time to delve into the playoff matches and see how our strategy of betting against favorites with odds below 2.0 fared. The table below provides the outcomes of the matches in the playoff stage and the associated points gained or lost

Playoff Outcomes

MatchFav OddsPoints
Germany – Denmark1.62-1
England – Slovakia1.422.38
Spain – Georgia1.2-1
France – Belgium1.91-1
Portugal – Slovenia1.333.03
Romania – Netherland1.42-1
Austria – Turkey1.91.11
Netherlands – Turkey1.57-1
Playoffs: 1.52 points

Summary

So far, our strategy of betting against favorites with odds below 2.0 has shown positive results both in the group stages and the playoffs. In total, the strategy has yielded a net gain of:

  • Group Stage: 13.49 points
  • Playoffs: 1.52 points

Total Net Gain: 13.49 + 1.52 = 15.01 points

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The Group Stage of Euro 2024: A Betting Retrospective on Favorites

As the group stage of Euro 2024 concludes, it’s an opportune moment to analyze a specific betting strategy focusing on favorites with odds below 2.0. By betting against these favorites, we aim to explore the potential returns and risks involved. Out of 36 matches, I filtered out the ones where the favorite’s odds were below 2.0 and evaluated the outcomes.

Wins in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

MatchFav OddsPoints Profit
Slovenia – Denmark1.71.43
Romania – Ukraine1.861.16
Belgium – Slovakia1.52.00
Croatia – Albania1.482.08
Scotland – Switzerland1.921.09
Slovenia – Serbia1.721.39
Denmark – England1.71.43
Georgia – Czechia1.781.28
Switzerland – Germany1.61.67
Netherlands – Austria1.821.22
France – Poland1.293.45
England – Slovenia1.333.03
Ukraine – Belgium1.641.56
Georgia – Portugal1.372.70

Losses in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

MatchFav OddsPoints
Germany – Scotland1.3-1
Spain – Croatia1.95-1
Italy – Albania1.4-1
Poland – Netherlands1.6-1
Serbia – England1.55-1
Austria – France1.6-1
Turkey – Georgia1.68-1
Portugal – Czechia1.51-1
Germany – Hungary1.28-1
Turkey – Portugal1.6-1
Belgium – Romania1.39-1
Albania – Spain1.42-1

Final Outcome: 25.49 − 12 = 13.49 points

Betting against the favorites with odds below 2.0 in these matches generated 25.49 points. After considering the -12 points liability from the matches where the favorites won, the net result is 13.49 points. This analysis demonstrates that even when the favorites are heavily favored (odds below 2.0), there is still significant potential for returns by betting against them.

In-Play Betting Insights

Those of you following my in-play betting values on X may have noticed that the three matches I posted at the beginning of the tournament resulted in losses. These matches are:

  • Hungary 1-2 Switzerland: Laid Switzerland at 1.19
  • Serbia 0-1 England: Laid England at 1.23 in the 64th minute
  • Austria 0-1 France: Laid France at 1.19 in the 63rd minute

I couldn’t provide further match updates online due to being on vacation. Instead, I focused on pre-match predictions as discussed in my previous blog post. I hope you enjoyed the first part of the tournament. I will update the results after the playoffs are finished.

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Euro 2024: Why I’m Betting Against Favorites

Euro 2024 has just kicked off, and the excitement is palpable! The opening match saw Germany crushing Scotland in a dominant performance. A major favorite has won, but I plan to bet against the favorites for the rest of the tournament. Here’s why I’ve chosen this strategy and how I believe it will pay off.

Why Bet Against Favorites?

High Odds for Upsets: In football, especially in tournaments like Euro 2024, upsets happen frequently. Even the strongest teams can have off days, and underdog teams are often underrated. By laying against favorites, we can take advantage of attractive odds on potential surprises.

Crowd Psychology: Many bettors place their bets based on emotions and loyalties, often inflating the odds on favorites to inappropriate levels. By going against the crowd, we can exploit these overvalued odds to our benefit.

Statistics and Analysis: Modern analytical tools allow in-depth analysis of matches, team form, and individual players. This enables us to assess better the likelihood of an upset and place lay bets with greater confidence.

Risk Management: Lay betting allows for better risk management. Since we are betting on something not happening, we have greater flexibility in stake selection and can better control potential losses.

Betting Against Favorites with Low Odds

My primary strategy will focus on laying against favorites when their odds are below 2.0. This approach targets situations where the market heavily backs the favorite, often overlooking the potential for an upset. By focusing on these lower odds, I aim to capitalize on the overconfidence placed in the favorite, increasing my chances of benefiting from any surprises.

How to Bet Lay Effectively?

Thorough Team Analysis: Before placing any bet, it’s crucial to thoroughly analyze team form, match statistics, injuries, and other factors that could influence the outcome.

Staying Updated: Keeping up with current news about the teams, such as key player injuries or tactical changes, can significantly affect a favorite’s chances of winning.

Bankroll Management: Proper bankroll management is key to avoiding significant losses and systematically building profits.

Conclusion

Euro 2024 promises to be an incredibly thrilling tournament, full of unexpected twists and dramatic moments. By betting against the favorites, I plan to take advantage of the opportunities that football and the betting market offer. I hope this approach increases my chances of profit and enhances my enjoyment of each match.

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Winter Football Season Ends

As the football season wraps up, it’s a perfect time to reflect and prepare for what’s next. With the season ending in most European leagues, there aren’t as many events to bet on using this strategy. It’s also important to note that end-of-season results can be unusual, as some teams no longer have much to play for, and players might be more focused on avoiding injuries ahead of Euro 2024.

In recent months, I’ve placed fewer bets. However, this doesn’t affect my positive outlook on the strategy. Sometimes, betting less is actually better, as it allows for more thoughtful and strategic decisions.

And let’s not forget—Euro 2024 is just around the corner! This major event is sure to bring plenty of exciting betting opportunities. I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on the matches and looking for those golden chances to make some smart bets.

Stay tuned for my picks and updates—I’ll be sharing them with you all soon. For now, you can track my results and see how things are shaping up.

Remember, betting is about earning some extra cash while keeping it fun and straightforward. Let’s keep those profits coming!

Cheers to a great season and even better things to come!

Catch you all soon!

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Winter Break

Hey there, everyone! I’m back from my winter hiatus, and boy, did I need it. It’s always good to take a break from the betting world, but now I’m refreshed and ready to dive back in.

So, what’s been happening? Well, I managed to sneak in a bet on the Hibernian vs. Celtic match, and let me tell you, it was a good one! I got a 34.33% return on investment, which is pretty sweet for my first bet back, don’t you think?

Now, I know some of you might be wondering why I didn’t bet more. Trust me, I wanted to, but life got in the way. I had some personal stuff going on over the weekend, and sometimes you just have to take a step back and focus on what’s important.

But don’t worry, I’m not going anywhere! I’ve got my eye on the market, and I’m ready to jump on the next opportunity. So stay tuned, because I’ll share my picks with you all soon. for now, you can track my results here.

And remember, betting is all about patience to make a little extra cash on the side. So let’s keep it light, keep it simple, and most importantly, keep it profitable!

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First Loss – Could It Have Been Avoided?

After a series of successful trades, boasting an average ROI of 37%, the inevitable first loss occurred. On Sunday, January 14th, the underdog Almeria faced off against title contender Girona.

The statistics for this match appeared promising:

  • Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 = 26
  • Magic No. = 2
  • Almeria held a Points Per Game (PPG) Home of 0.25, with Points Per Game (PPG) Home Opp PPG at 1.48.
  • Girona had Points Per Game (PPG) Away of 2.5, with an identical Points Per Game (PPG) Away Opp PPG of 1.48.
  • The Standard Deviation (SD) range for Almeria was 0-2, while Girona’s SD range was 1-4.
  • Additionally, the first goal scored at home for Almeria was 22%, while Girona’s first goal conceded away was 33%.
source: https://oddspedia.com

The only puzzling aspect was Girona’s odds drifting from 1.65 to 1.95 on the day of the match. However, no discernible cause for this increase was found. While generally, odds below 2 are acceptable, my preference is when they drop below 1.8.

The match outcome added to the intrigue, concluding with a goalless draw. This begs the question: Could this loss have been anticipated, or did the odds movement hint at unforeseen factors influencing the match outcome?

In my opinion, no. As a trader, you need to deal with losses. Sometimes, goals for the underdog will be scored from nowhere, or the favorite will struggle to score one. If I were to trade this match once again, I would go for it, as my stats suggested. Losses are just a part of this business.

You can find other trades and current P/L in my updated spreadsheet with my outcomes.

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Favorite Playing Away – 0:3CS Approach

I’m back to share the first outcomes of my latest strategy based on the 3:0 Correct Score (3:0CS) approach. In my previous post, I explained the reasons for my break and introduced the 3:0CS strategy inspired by Mark from TTM.

Introduction to Transparent Approach:

I’ve decided to focus exclusively on matches selected using the 3:0CS strategy, and in this post, I’ll present the initial results of this approach. To witness my progress, I’ll consistently update a public spreadsheet with my outcomes. I won’t reveal my selections, encouraging you to follow my journey, learn from experiences, and foster your development.

Analyzing a Match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby:

Let’s take a closer look at a match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby. The Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 is 37, indicating one team’s dominance in both attack and defense. The ‘Magic No. -0.5‘ and Standard Deviation Away Min 1 suggests the potential for a high-scoring game.

Key PPG data reveals:

It is so simple to filter free data thanks to the TTM team
Standard Deviation for CS on the TTM website
  • Derby has a high PPG Away (L8) of 2.38, with a corresponding PPG Away Opp PPG of 1.3.
  • Fleetwood Town, despite a lower PPG Home (L8) of 0.25, faced stronger opponents, evident in PPG Home Opp PPG 1.66.
  • PPG Home vs Away Relevance of 2,48 emphasizes a significant difference between the two teams.

The statistical difference between the teams is significant, suggesting potential betting opportunities. However, this is not the sole factor in decision-making.

Additional factors, such as which team scores first, are considered. Fleetwood Town concedes the first goal at home in 75%, while Derby scores first away in 58%.

Who scores first? Check on the TTM website

Match Outcome:

Entering the market with pre-kickoff odds at 15.5, Derby scored in the 27th minute, causing the odds to drop to 9.6-9.8. Exiting at this point resulted in a 58% ROI. The match concluded with a 1:3 score, as indicated by the Standard Deviation.

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Exploring the 3:0 Correct Score Strategy and Match Profiling

It’s been a while since my last blog update, and I owe you an explanation for my absence. Recent personal experiences during my vacation prompted a shift in my priorities, leading me to allocate more time to various aspects of life than to trading and betting. Additionally, the FHG & SHG method I previously shared wasn’t yielding the expected results, as it did in the past. Essentially, I decided to take a break from the blog and betting.

Despite the hiatus, I’ve remained active in the industry, participating in betting without regular blog and X updates. Additionally, I’m a member of the fantastic TTM community.

The TTM Community: A Valuable Resource
The TTM community is a goldmine of insights. Not only do they generously share working strategies, but they also foster an environment conducive to learning and personal growth in the sports trading realm. Their YouTube channel provides valuable insights, and the Discord server offers a wealth of information, making it a one-stop destination for enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge and skills, and all of it is free!

Introducing the 3:0 Correct Score Strategy:
In light of this, I’ve decided to introduce a new strategy on this blog based on the 3:0 Correct Score approach developed by Mark from TTM. The strategy, combined with match profiling and the right mindset, has the potential to be a solid foundation for building one’s bank. Find informative videos on the 3:0 Correct Score strategy here and here. Additionally, explore further details on match profiling using PPG here.

A Transparent Approach:
Moving forward, I will exclusively focus on matches using the 3:0CS strategy in upcoming blog posts. I’ll explain my match selections, but not all matches will be covered here. Instead, you can follow my progress through a live spreadsheet I’ll update consistently. I won’t disclose my selections in advance. The goal is for you to learn from my experiences, draw conclusions, and develop your path. I hope this approach positively contributes to your self-development. The stacking plan remains a standard 1% unit of the bankroll.

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Unexpected Turns of Life: A Journey Beyond Betting

It’s been a while since my last blog update. I had plans to share the latest statistics and the results of my sports bets before heading off for a well-deserved vacation. However, due to a lack of time and preparations for the holiday, I decided to postpone it until after my break.

The plan was to return from my vacation at the end of July, but a series of unfortunate events forced me to extend my stay in a foreign land until the end of August. What was meant to be a dream vacation and an opportunity to show my kids a different part of the world didn’t start off as smoothly as I’d hoped.

I found myself in Indonesia, on the beautiful island of Bali, when my son had a terrible accident, resulting in a head injury that required surgery to remove blood from his brain. During this time, all my professional matters seemed insignificant. The three-hour surgery was successful, and my son quickly began to recover, leaving the hospital just a week after the operation. However, due to the injury, we couldn’t take long-distance flights, so our return was postponed.

This unexpected situation led to longer unplanned vacations and, consequently, unforeseen expenses. I had to take unpaid leave, but none of that mattered. My son’s health was the top priority. Currently, his condition prevents him from playing his favorite sport, soccer, or engaging in other physical activities. This is because it will take up to six months for his skull bone to fully heal, and he needs to be extremely cautious to prevent any shifting. However, he feels great and looks perfectly normal, except for the scars on his head. Still, we have to be vigilant to ensure he doesn’t accidentally hurt himself.

Despite the uncertainty ahead, I am much more at ease now. The doctors in Bali did everything in their power to heal my son, and for that, I am immensely grateful. It seems that my prayers were answered, although I must admit that while waiting for the surgery results, I aged a bit prematurely. It was a challenging time for my family, and we had to change our plans, cancel flights (including a visit to Komodo Island, which the kids were eager to explore), and postpone activities like snorkeling with turtles on the Gili Islands.

On the other hand, my daughter missed European cuisine after an extended stay in Asia. She longed for her favorite dishes, which she couldn’t experience in Asia. She yearned for a return to our home country and reunions with friends, family, and our beloved dog.

Despite it all, we supported each other and navigated through this challenging time together. I believe it strengthened our bonds. We were fortunate to have friends with us on the journey who provided help and support whenever needed.

As I mentioned at the beginning, my blog post was originally meant to be about something entirely different. However, in betting as in life, unexpected situations arise, and we must adapt. Financial losses are not the worst thing that can happen to us. We must approach everything in life with humility and gratitude.

Life threw us a curveball, and we faced it head-on, emerging stronger as a family. It’s a reminder that sometimes, the most important bets we make in life have nothing to do with money.