by CU Green 18 July 2024 0

Analysis and Insights: Betting Against Favorites in Euro 2024 Playoffs

Following the group stage analysis and the conclusion of the Euro 2024 tournament, which was deservedly won by the Spanish team, it’s time to delve into the playoff matches and see how our strategy of betting against favorites with odds below 2.0 fared. The table below provides the outcomes of the matches in the playoff stage and the associated points gained or lost

Playoff Outcomes

Match	Fav Odds	Points
Germany – Denmark	1.62	-1
England – Slovakia	1.42	2.38
Spain – Georgia	1.2	-1
France – Belgium	1.91	-1
Portugal – Slovenia	1.33	3.03
Romania – Netherland	1.42	-1
Austria – Turkey	1.9	1.11
Netherlands – Turkey	1.57	-1

Playoffs: 1.52 points

Summary

So far, our strategy of betting against favorites with odds below 2.0 has shown positive results both in the group stages and the playoffs. In total, the strategy has yielded a net gain of:

Group Stage: 13.49 points
Playoffs: 1.52 points

Total Net Gain: 13.49 + 1.52 = 15.01 points

by CU Green 1 July 2024 0

The Group Stage of Euro 2024: A Betting Retrospective on Favorites

As the group stage of Euro 2024 concludes, it’s an opportune moment to analyze a specific betting strategy focusing on favorites with odds below 2.0. By betting against these favorites, we aim to explore the potential returns and risks involved. Out of 36 matches, I filtered out the ones where the favorite’s odds were below 2.0 and evaluated the outcomes.

Wins in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

Match	Fav Odds	Points Profit
Slovenia – Denmark	1.7	1.43
Romania – Ukraine	1.86	1.16
Belgium – Slovakia	1.5	2.00
Croatia – Albania	1.48	2.08
Scotland – Switzerland	1.92	1.09
Slovenia – Serbia	1.72	1.39
Denmark – England	1.7	1.43
Georgia – Czechia	1.78	1.28
Switzerland – Germany	1.6	1.67
Netherlands – Austria	1.82	1.22
France – Poland	1.29	3.45
England – Slovenia	1.33	3.03
Ukraine – Belgium	1.64	1.56
Georgia – Portugal	1.37	2.70

Losses in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0

Match	Fav Odds	Points
Germany – Scotland	1.3	-1
Spain – Croatia	1.95	-1
Italy – Albania	1.4	-1
Poland – Netherlands	1.6	-1
Serbia – England	1.55	-1
Austria – France	1.6	-1
Turkey – Georgia	1.68	-1
Portugal – Czechia	1.51	-1
Germany – Hungary	1.28	-1
Turkey – Portugal	1.6	-1
Belgium – Romania	1.39	-1
Albania – Spain	1.42	-1

Final Outcome: 25.49 − 12 = 13.49 points

Betting against the favorites with odds below 2.0 in these matches generated 25.49 points. After considering the -12 points liability from the matches where the favorites won, the net result is 13.49 points. This analysis demonstrates that even when the favorites are heavily favored (odds below 2.0), there is still significant potential for returns by betting against them.

In-Play Betting Insights

Those of you following my in-play betting values on X may have noticed that the three matches I posted at the beginning of the tournament resulted in losses. These matches are:

Hungary 1-2 Switzerland: Laid Switzerland at 1.19
Serbia 0-1 England: Laid England at 1.23 in the 64th minute
Austria 0-1 France: Laid France at 1.19 in the 63rd minute

I couldn’t provide further match updates online due to being on vacation. Instead, I focused on pre-match predictions as discussed in my previous blog post. I hope you enjoyed the first part of the tournament. I will update the results after the playoffs are finished.