As the group stage of Euro 2024 concludes, it’s an opportune moment to analyze a specific betting strategy focusing on favorites with odds below 2.0. By betting against these favorites, we aim to explore the potential returns and risks involved. Out of 36 matches, I filtered out the ones where the favorite’s odds were below 2.0 and evaluated the outcomes.
Wins in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0
| Match | Fav Odds | Points Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Slovenia – Denmark | 1.7 | 1.43 |
| Romania – Ukraine | 1.86 | 1.16 |
| Belgium – Slovakia | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| Croatia – Albania | 1.48 | 2.08 |
| Scotland – Switzerland | 1.92 | 1.09 |
| Slovenia – Serbia | 1.72 | 1.39 |
| Denmark – England | 1.7 | 1.43 |
| Georgia – Czechia | 1.78 | 1.28 |
| Switzerland – Germany | 1.6 | 1.67 |
| Netherlands – Austria | 1.82 | 1.22 |
| France – Poland | 1.29 | 3.45 |
| England – Slovenia | 1.33 | 3.03 |
| Ukraine – Belgium | 1.64 | 1.56 |
| Georgia – Portugal | 1.37 | 2.70 |
Losses in Betting for Favorites with Odds Below 2.0
| Match | Fav Odds | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Germany – Scotland | 1.3 | -1 |
| Spain – Croatia | 1.95 | -1 |
| Italy – Albania | 1.4 | -1 |
| Poland – Netherlands | 1.6 | -1 |
| Serbia – England | 1.55 | -1 |
| Austria – France | 1.6 | -1 |
| Turkey – Georgia | 1.68 | -1 |
| Portugal – Czechia | 1.51 | -1 |
| Germany – Hungary | 1.28 | -1 |
| Turkey – Portugal | 1.6 | -1 |
| Belgium – Romania | 1.39 | -1 |
| Albania – Spain | 1.42 | -1 |
Final Outcome: 25.49 − 12 = 13.49 points
Betting against the favorites with odds below 2.0 in these matches generated 25.49 points. After considering the -12 points liability from the matches where the favorites won, the net result is 13.49 points. This analysis demonstrates that even when the favorites are heavily favored (odds below 2.0), there is still significant potential for returns by betting against them.
In-Play Betting Insights
Those of you following my in-play betting values on X may have noticed that the three matches I posted at the beginning of the tournament resulted in losses. These matches are:
- Hungary 1-2 Switzerland: Laid Switzerland at 1.19
- Serbia 0-1 England: Laid England at 1.23 in the 64th minute
- Austria 0-1 France: Laid France at 1.19 in the 63rd minute
I couldn’t provide further match updates online due to being on vacation. Instead, I focused on pre-match predictions as discussed in my previous blog post. I hope you enjoyed the first part of the tournament. I will update the results after the playoffs are finished.
