After a series of successful trades, boasting an average ROI of 37%, the inevitable first loss occurred. On Sunday, January 14th, the underdog Almeria faced off against title contender Girona.

The statistics for this match appeared promising:

• Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 = 26
• Magic No. = 2
• Almeria held a Points Per Game (PPG) Home of 0.25, with Points Per Game (PPG) Home Opp PPG at 1.48.
• Girona had Points Per Game (PPG) Away of 2.5, with an identical Points Per Game (PPG) Away Opp PPG of 1.48.
• The Standard Deviation (SD) range for Almeria was 0-2, while Girona’s SD range was 1-4.
• Additionally, the first goal scored at home for Almeria was 22%, while Girona’s first goal conceded away was 33%.

The only puzzling aspect was Girona’s odds drifting from 1.65 to 1.95 on the day of the match. However, no discernible cause for this increase was found. While generally, odds below 2 are acceptable, my preference is when they drop below 1.8.

The match outcome added to the intrigue, concluding with a goalless draw. This begs the question: Could this loss have been anticipated, or did the odds movement hint at unforeseen factors influencing the match outcome?

In my opinion, no. As a trader, you need to deal with losses. Sometimes, goals for the underdog will be scored from nowhere, or the favorite will struggle to score one. If I were to trade this match once again, I would go for it, as my stats suggested. Losses are just a part of this business.

You can find other trades and current P/L in my updated spreadsheet with my outcomes.

I’m back to share the first outcomes of my latest strategy based on the 3:0 Correct Score (3:0CS) approach. In my previous post, I explained the reasons for my break and introduced the 3:0CS strategy inspired by Mark from TTM.

Introduction to Transparent Approach:

I’ve decided to focus exclusively on matches selected using the 3:0CS strategy, and in this post, I’ll present the initial results of this approach. To witness my progress, I’ll consistently update a public spreadsheet with my outcomes. I won’t reveal my selections, encouraging you to follow my journey, learn from experiences, and foster your development.

Analyzing a Match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby:

Let’s take a closer look at a match – Fleetwood Town vs. Derby. The Attack vs Defence Stats (1 Highest Rated) Relevance2 is 37, indicating one team’s dominance in both attack and defense. The ‘Magic No. -0.5‘ and Standard Deviation Away Min 1 suggests the potential for a high-scoring game.

Key PPG data reveals:

• Derby has a high PPG Away (L8) of 2.38, with a corresponding PPG Away Opp PPG of 1.3.
• Fleetwood Town, despite a lower PPG Home (L8) of 0.25, faced stronger opponents, evident in PPG Home Opp PPG 1.66.
• PPG Home vs Away Relevance of 2,48 emphasizes a significant difference between the two teams.

The statistical difference between the teams is significant, suggesting potential betting opportunities. However, this is not the sole factor in decision-making.

Additional factors, such as which team scores first, are considered. Fleetwood Town concedes the first goal at home in 75%, while Derby scores first away in 58%.

Match Outcome:

Entering the market with pre-kickoff odds at 15.5, Derby scored in the 27th minute, causing the odds to drop to 9.6-9.8. Exiting at this point resulted in a 58% ROI. The match concluded with a 1:3 score, as indicated by the Standard Deviation.

It’s been a while since my last blog update, and I owe you an explanation for my absence. Recent personal experiences during my vacation prompted a shift in my priorities, leading me to allocate more time to various aspects of life than to trading and betting. Additionally, the FHG & SHG method I previously shared wasn’t yielding the expected results, as it did in the past. Essentially, I decided to take a break from the blog and betting.

Despite the hiatus, I’ve remained active in the industry, participating in betting without regular blog and X updates. Additionally, I’m a member of the fantastic TTM community.

The TTM Community: A Valuable Resource
The TTM community is a goldmine of insights. Not only do they generously share working strategies, but they also foster an environment conducive to learning and personal growth in the sports trading realm. Their YouTube channel provides valuable insights, and the Discord server offers a wealth of information, making it a one-stop destination for enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge and skills, and all of it is free!

Introducing the 3:0 Correct Score Strategy:
In light of this, I’ve decided to introduce a new strategy on this blog based on the 3:0 Correct Score approach developed by Mark from TTM. The strategy, combined with match profiling and the right mindset, has the potential to be a solid foundation for building one’s bank. Find informative videos on the 3:0 Correct Score strategy here and here. Additionally, explore further details on match profiling using PPG here.

A Transparent Approach:
Moving forward, I will exclusively focus on matches using the 3:0CS strategy in upcoming blog posts. I’ll explain my match selections, but not all matches will be covered here. Instead, you can follow my progress through a live spreadsheet I’ll update consistently. I won’t disclose my selections in advance. The goal is for you to learn from my experiences, draw conclusions, and develop your path. I hope this approach positively contributes to your self-development. The stacking plan remains a standard 1% unit of the bankroll.