Happy New Year to you (my readers)! Let’s make this year even better. Now, back to business. After a month of focusing on the current results of my betting strategy, I received approximately 80 more selections. The results are as follows:

Out of the selected 806 games, 45% (363 games) resulted in missed bets due to a goal being scored before the odds changed (GBO). Despite this, the strike rate decreased slightly from 52% to 51.7%, which is still a profitable rate when converted to implied odds of 1.93. When bets are placed before kick-off, the strike rate increases to 73.4% (converted to implied odds of 1.36). If bets are placed in the second half, the strike rate is even higher at 81.9% (odds of 1.22).

Upon analyzing my losing bets, I noticed that many of them did not have a clear favorite. To address this, I have implemented a new rule:

from now on, the favorite (either home or away) must have odds below 2.0 before kick-off.

My backtested data shows that this should improve the strike rate.

Going forward, I will also change the timing of when I enter the market. From now on, I will enter when bets before kick-off are at 1.4 or at the beginning of the game that goes in play.

It is your decision whether you want to wait for better odds, such as 2.0, or enter before kick-off. However, it is important to track all of your bets and strike rate in order to avoid bankruptcy. You may also want to consider SHG bets, as current results show very good outcomes. You can easily find games from the selected ones, where the odds in the second half are better than 1.22.

CU Green

Appendix: recorded data FHG (the latest bets)