November 2022

The 2022 FIFA World Cup starts on Sunday (November 20). The tournament takes place in Qatar, hence the autumn start date. It is one of the most controversial World Cups in history and the last with 32 participants.

In recent months, there has been a lot of talk about the inhumane treatment of foreign workers who prepared the World Cup infrastructure and discrimination based on sexual orientation. According to various accounts, blue-collar workers lived in appalling conditions, had no access to food and water, and were often not paid on time or at all. As a result, several thousand people could lose their lives during work.

The Qatari side refutes these allegations, and calls the activists calling for a boycott of the event “badly informed”. At the same time, he assures everyone who comes to the tournament in Qatar is welcome. At the same time, visitors are warned against “publicly displaying” their sexual preferences. There will also be restrictions on alcohol consumption.

Other controversies include the fact that during the summer when the World Cup is usually held, temperatures in Qatar are so high that they would be dangerous to the health of the fans, not to mention the players themselves. For this reason, the tournament – for the first time in history – was moved to late autumn, i.e. in the middle of the season of most domestic leagues. According to many, this puts at risk the health of players overloaded with a busy calendar.

Will it have an impact on betting? you never know. Let’s check the latest few World Cup results and FHG & SHG chances at the group stage.

The bookies will also expect it, so there is a chance the odds would be reflected in general old statistics.

Can you rely on it? There are no consistent results, and if you take into account that for the first time it is played in autumn you can expect the unexpected. If you decided to bet please use small stakes only, there are so many different factors that could have an impact on your betting.

My strategy for WorldCup2022 will be based on the Second Half-Goals (SHG) formula.

Based on the previous results I will consider only second-half betting at the group stage when the odds would be close to the average of 1.27 on the next goals market overX,5+, and shots on target at half-time would be equal to 4. I will not bet on the final rounds, as there are fewer goals in general.

There will not be many games probably, but as always all my picks will be available on my Twitter account.

Good luck if playing and have fun watching World Cup 2022

We are about to start World Cup so it is time, to sum up, the last half-year results on my FHG bets. Since April (when I changed from HTLTD into FHG bets) I managed to have over 700 selected games. When we add another 250 selections from HTLTD (which had the same filters used for game selection) it gives us about 1000 games, which is a good enough indicator to make some conclusions.

For the selected 726 games,  45% (332 games) were missed due to the goal scored before odds (GBO). The strike rate decreased from 53.9% to 52% which still is good enough to be in profit ( converted to implied odds it is equal to 1,92 odds)

The longest losing streak (including missed bets was 7 bets and it appeared 4 times, which is still below the 9.4 losing sequence for 1000 samples [math theory]

I must admit that the last 3 months it was a rollercoaster. Ups and downs, so not many points were earned. Please keep in mind that trading/betting is not a sprint, but a marathon.

The main thing in any trading/betting system is to measure all statistics in order to make some adjustments later on or to spot other possibilities. In our samples, you could notice that FHG % was 74% if you bet before KO, and SHG % was 81,8% if you bet at HT. If we convert those numbers to implied odds it gives us the results: 1,35 odds for betting on FHG, and 1,22 odds for betting on SHG. There were 48,1% of games that had over1,5 goals in SH, etc. All numbers converted to implied odds, give you chance to find some other opportunities. I will be back to it after World Cup.

CU Green

Appendix: recorded data FHG (since August 2022, if you need previous data check old blog posts)