It’s been over a month since I provided my statistics HTLTD, so now it’s time to update the results with the set & forget approach. As I have mentioned last month, I decided to bet on over 0,5 FHG when the odds reach 2. The main reason was that I assumed that I should get a bit better results. (full story) The game selection process remains unchanged.

For the selected period I had 105 selections, where 47 (45%) were missed due to the goal scored before odds (GBO) were reached.

My strike rate for those 58 bets was 56,9%, which is equal to 1,76 if we convert it to implied odds. That is very good results, but a small sample size, so I`m expecting that correction will come when more games would be played. As it is set & forget system my avg win will be always 0,98, which in a nutshell gives me an edge long term, as it is above the current 0,76 metric.

The longest losing streak was 4 bets, which is less than expected. Please do not freak out if you notice in my selections 7 or 8 losing bets in a row in the future, it is just math and it is calculated over a large sample of data. If the strike rate is about 50% (implied odds 2) you can expect a losing run of 13 within 5000 samples.

13% ROI is great, but do not go overexcited as the correction will come. if you add all current values to the risk of ruin calculator it will show long-term positive outcomes. The main aim of this Coin flipping method is to be right more often than wrong

People have habits of changing things if they do not go according to their winning plan. The main reason is that they do not understand the key factor – math as the whole betting/trading industry is part of it.

All my selections (over 350 games including stats in my previous post) since January show positive outcomes long term. Last month I have decided to make it more simple, as I was expecting similar/a bit better results. Current statistics show that it was a good choice.

Time is money, and this case makes it true. I do not need to spend time during the day and follow my selections. I can place all of them in advance, and check the results at the end of the day. There are many trading systems that require you to be more engaged, but FHG in my opinion does not need to be the one. Make it simple, and believe in probability.

I will continue betting and posting my selection on Twitter on over 0,5 FHG set & forget system with odds equal to 2.

Appendix: recorded data FHG