Every football trader knows this market. There is plenty of information on the internet on how to trades this market in the first half, second half, the whole match, etc. How to choose the best matches for this particular strategy. However, I have noticed a lack of information that includes a basic factor which is probability.

Trading is math and should be simple.

So if you have 50/50 % then in order to be in profit you should lay the odds below 2, e.g 1.9 In order to get an odds @1.9, you should wait till 60-70mins ( it depends on the match if a strong favorite playing, a red card in the match, etc).

If we look at the statistics from different leagues, at least 1 second-half goal is required to be scored in the lastest period of the football match. Let’s check what do the stats say about it. To make it simple I will only consider a 0-0 draw till 60-70mins.

In the last 5years seasons after 60mins of play over 0.5 goals scored in a match looks like (statistics based on www.cgmbet.com software) :

60min -> 61,19% (20513 games)

65min -> 55,19% (17768 games)

70min -> 48,67% (15509 games)

In a nutshell, it means that you have about a 50% chance to get 1 goal if you enter a market in the last 30-20mins and the score is still 0-0.

Looks simple? Of course, it is, and has to be!

Trading does not have to be complicated like basic math isn’t it too.

It requires only to be patient, and proper money management.

Next month I`m going to check this set & forget system (I will not be removing liability after a goal). My aim is to get about 100 bets to check if this is a profitable system. Follow me on Twitter as I will call the matches in-play with information about the odds and minutes of entering the trade/bet so the test would be transparent. For each game, I will use a 1point liability.

CU Green