In one of my previous posts, I have explained that anyone who wants to be a successful trader, needs to learn the basics and should start with trading pre-match. (check this out if you missed it -> pre-match-trading)
Today I will show you this in practice. The strategy itself focuses on low odds of strong favorites. In detail, you would learn when to enter and exit the market.
What is in my opinion the best selection process and how you profit from use freely available software to make it easier.
Step by step guide for LOSF strategy
- Choose the best match for the strategy.
In my opinion one of the best website for free soccer predictions:
www.prosoccer.gr
The advantage of this website is that you can sort by current average odds, under/over 2.5 goals or predicted score, etc.
Look at the example below:
Your aim is to have:
- Avg Odds 1 (home favorite) to be below 1.7 and above 1.3
- Tips to be 1 (home)
- Predict Prob%1 to be above 60
- Pred. Score 1 & 2 to be at least 2 goals difference in favor of the home team
- Time to enter the market
The best time to enter the market is between 2-4 hours before the kick-off. - Double-check current odds movements.
I`m using Betfair charts and oddsportal.com In the oddsportal.com I focus on Asian market leader (Pinnacle) who updates odds the fastest and usually rest of the bookies follow them.
- Enter the market:
In this example 3h before the kick-off.
Placed back bet on Liverpool for 1.56 (matched) and placed lay bet for 1.54 (unmatched 2 ticks below)
- Check the market 1 hour before kick-off
It is needed to make up a decision. Usually, at this point, your lay bet should have been matched.
If not, then you have 2 options:
- leave the market without profit
- wait for the odds to steam.
A big impact on the odds would have the lineups. Especially if the key-player is missing. The odd on the favorite will drift in this situation.
Have a look at twitter announcement or official team website to get this info. Also, keep an eye on Betfair charts.
In this example, official lineups have not got any surprise and 36 minutes before the kick-off lay bet was matched. The best option, in this case, is to hedge (spread all profit all over other outcomes), but as you are not losing at this point, you can wait and check if the price will steam more significantly. (which not happen often)
- Check the market 5min before kick-off or just right before the start and exit the trade. Never GO Inplay! I hedged as the match has started.
Why this LOSF strategy works?
The answer is simple, people (gamblers) push the price down on the favorite, expecting that teams like Barcelona, Real Madrid, Liverpool, etc will easily win.
Close to kick-off more bettors try to be involved, so more money is available and trigger the market. There is no hidden secret behind it.
As you can notice ROI was only 1,29% (2 ticks, for 1 tick it would be 0,65%). It is indeed not too much, but what is most important you must practice repeatability in order to be confident about the strategy which is very low risk. After 100 trades you will see that it pays off.
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