March 2020

According to the 19 March statement, the leagues issued: “The Premier League, EFL, and PFA agreed that difficult decisions will have to be taken in order to mitigate the economic impact of the current suspension of professional football in England and agreed to work together to arrive at shared solutions. The leagues will not recommence until April 30 at the earliest. They will only do so when it is safe and conditions allow.”

This seems logical in the age of coronavirus and concern for the safety of football players. They also declared noting that meetings with various involved parties would continue in the following week.

Today, a week and a half later, after this meeting, we have found out (based on the investigation of dailymail.co.uk journalists) unofficially that the league will start in early May so that the federation can avoid £762m penalties.

To be honest I`m shocked! People for matters of a few quid can put at-risk players! I hope it is a piece of fake news!

If we have a look at the coronavirus statistics in Italy at least, it seems that we will struggle with this pandemic much longer, than first expectation was considered.
Moreover, the UK is about to 15 days behind Italy if we look at the virus spread chart (based on exceeded 500 confirmed cases).

Can you imagine what could happen in the UK in 2 weeks’ time, or 3 weeks?
That`s why all the medical authorities asked all of us to stay at home! It is only a possible solution to slow down the pandemic and help doctors to save people’s lives.

I’m a sports trader and make money out of sports events. Premier League is one of my favorites to trade, but I can’t imagine that people risk someone’s lives due to money!
With coronavirus pandemic, all of us are losing money, and we need to simply accept this fact! The sooner we understand it the better!
Patience is the key. Sports events will return eventually.

Stay healthy, stay at home!

sources:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8169229/Premier-League-plan-resume-season-closed-doors-start-MAY.html

https://www.eurosport.co.uk/football/football-news-premier-league-and-efl-won-t-resume-before-april-30-due-to-coronavirus_sto7714176/story.shtml

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/peteraldhous/coronavirus-deaths-by-country

First of all, I hope you are fine. It is a hard time for everyone in the world, especially for those who are not feeling well. COVID19 pandemic will end eventually, for now, the only thing we can do is to stay at home and slow its spreading. Many thanks to the medical services who fight for our health every day and for scientists who conduct research to defeat this virus!

Lockdown that happened in most of the countries forces us to change our daily habits. How to stay proactive in the new situation?

Instead of watching Amazon Prime or Netflix continuously and wasting the day away, do your best to do something useful. There is a lot of online courses that make you engaged, but what if you feel fed up already with whole online activities?

The simple answer is to go back to school and read books, that will have a positive impact on your life and possible future investments.  There is a lot of trading books, that every trader should read in his life in order to improve his mindset, knowledge and to find his edge. Writing this post, I wanted to give you a few titles that might interest you. I decided, however, that I would only provide the one that had the most impact on my trading.

The book is called “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading: Essential Knowledge for All Traders in All Markets”  by Brent Penfold.

A few years ago I have bought and read his book that changed my perception of trading. Brent trades global futures contracts on indexes, currencies, and commodities and also help educate others to trade. More about him you can find at https://indextrader.com.au

You may ask: what does this have to do with sports trading?

The title of the book explains everything, these are universal principles.

The book is full of lots of trading wisdom for both new and experienced traders. It explains the fundamental rules of successful trading. There is statistical ground that supports the mathematical nature of the investment. Regardless of the methodology used it shows you the statistics that maximize your profits and minimize your loss. It also included interviews with a range of successful traders at the end of his book.

If you treat trading seriously I highly recommend reading his book in order to get rid of the illusions about what is crucial in investing. It is important how often you earn, how much you earn and how much you lose. It is important how much you risk and how quickly you can go bankrupt this way.

The book is available on amazon under this link.

“Risk of ruin calculator” was added to his book as a bonus.  If you like to know how I get most of his book and implement it in my trading approach, just please subscribe to my newsletter and I will reveal my secret:

Stay healthy and stay at home!

Pre-match/Pre-race/Pre-play trading is the prediction of exchange rate movements. Based on observations and analyses, you can anticipate market behavior and earn on it. In simple words, you can follow certain triggers that help you to predict where the price is going to be.

If you want to be a successful trader, you have to learn the basics of market observation.

You can immediately get into deep water when you start in-play trading, because these markets are often very volatile and you might easily lose all your assets. It also requires more experience, knowledge of market behavior and composure. Due to its dynamics, it is much more difficult, however, if done properly, you can expect a better payoff compared to pre-match trading.

In the case of pre-match trading, there are not such large fluctuations in exchange rates, thanks to which at the beginning of the journey you have a better chance of avoiding wrong decision with catastrophic magnitude.

You should never focus on money, but on repeating the same patterns.  As a beginner, your aim should be to to gain one tick at the beginning of trading.

Tick is simply the smallest possible value between the odds. It has a different value depends on the price odds. The key price odds on the market are  2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100.

Incremental change in the price odds of the betting exchange follows this pattern:

Odds between 1.01 and 2.0, tick equal 0.01 (e.g 1.80 & 1.81)

Odds between 2.0 and 3.0, tick equal 0.02 (e.g 2.02 & 2.04)

Odds between 3.0 and 4.0, tick equal 0.05 (e.g 3.05 & 3.10)

Odds between 4.0 and 6.0, tick equal 0.10 (e.g 4.1 & 4.2)

Odds between 6.0 and 10.0, tick equal 0.20 (e.g 6.0 & 6.2)

Odds between 10.0 and 20.0, tick equal 0.50 (e.g 11.0 & 11.5)

Odds between 20.0 and 30.0, tick equal 1.00 (e.g 20.0 & 21)

Odds between 30.0 and 50.0, tick equal 2.00 (e.g 30.0 & 32)

Trading on one tick assumes playing very safe with a minimum earning on the smallest possible exchange rate difference. You aim to be on the exchange as little as possible to make a profit.

One tick trading is the way you have to start to become a successful sports trader.

Coronavirus affects all sports events. More and more are being postponed or canceled all over the world, and athletes often compete before empty stands. And all of this is happening just a few months before the start of the Olympic Games in Japan and EURO 2020.

In Italy, all sports events were suspended until April 3 so far. This week’s main tennis events were also canceled due to Coronavirus fears.

How you should deal with this situation as a trader when there are little or no events on the market?

First of all, you need to accept this fact in the same way as you accept your losses. It is part of this business to expect the unexpected. When you look at the data and news it seems, that Coronavirus is not yet under control, and more people will be infected.

The sports exchange is and will be as long as people want to bet, so you do not need to worry about it. If we can save lives by postponing all sports events by let’s say for one year it is worth it! It is better to be healthy without money than dead.

As a trader, you have to be patient! Do not force yourself to find any events (if there are any) to bet.

Focus on the learning process, read trading books, improve your mindset, subscribe to my newsletter and find out how to survive on sports exchange.

I believe that soon we will overcome the virus, just like you will succeed in trading!

Stay calm, and I will CU Green again!

Sports Trader – a profession that becomes more popular. It is a mix of sports betting and standard financial trading.

Requires knowledge of both stock market realities as financial institutions and knowledge of the sports market. However, it does not require knowledge about sports, or just a little. Much more important is to learn how the market behaves, what has an impact on the price in the events.

Sports trading is in simple words, trading with sports betting odds. The main goal is to place two opposite bets for one event. In sports trading, those bets being called: Back and Lay. You will find It very similar to selling and buying in regular stock trading exchanges.

BACK (will happen) – when you sell such an odd, it means that a given event will find its place in reality.

LAY (will not happen) – when you buy such an odd, that the given result will not happen.

In a nutshell, you make money every time you manage to sell at a higher value.

You can place your bets on betting exchange, which is a platform where an average betting customer can bet against others. Unlike standard sports betting, where you place bets using the odds provided by the bookmaker, sports trading happens between the traders. The betting exchange is simply providing you with the platform and charging a commission on winnings.

The most popular betting exchange platforms are Betfair, Betdaq, Smarkets, Matchbook.

The industry leader – Betfair is the largest, most popular betting exchange. It was formed in 2000 and since that time has the largest number of members, meaning that the liquidity beats that of any other exchange. Betfair was the first betting website that allowed trading and laying.

If you want to learn how the exchange works, I strongly encourage you to subscribe to my newsletter from which you will get practical knowledge about different strategies.

Sports trading has a distinction between Pre-Play and In-Play trading.  The first one means trading and closing the market before the event begins. The latter refers to traders who play on markets during the match.

Let’s make a simple pre-play trade to help you understand the process.

The Back (in favor of) odds for Manchester Utd are 1.58. To make a profit you need to set Lay odds below the mentioned price. In this example I have set it to 1.56:

The Back bet profit would be £58, while the Lay odd liability would be £56 if the Lay bet gets matched, which had happened after some time:

In a scenario where Manchester Utd wins, you can calculate your sports trade profit by subtracting the £56 liability from the £58 Back bet profit and earn low-risk £2 minus 2% commission that gives you 1.96£.

At this stage, you have two possibilities:

1) run it as “free bet” – hoping that Manchester Utd will win the game, but not losing anything if they do not manage.

2) hedging/greening – to spread results to all outcomes, which is your main goal as a trader. You can simply do it through Betfair interface by clicking the Cash Out yellow button, or through dedicated trading software, which I prefer.

Can anyone become a Pro Trader? Yes, but although a lot of people try their hand, few become professionals. Patience, emotionless approach, long-term view of your career path are necessary elements to become a successful trader.

The process of learning the realities of the sports exchange is long and tedious, but I will show you how to shorten it and how to avoid bankruptcy!

After an unsuccessful attempt to place bets, I decided to analyze the topic of surebets. What is surebet / arbitrage?

Surebet is a situation when a bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies.
The simplest surebet is called 2-way arbitrage. Only two (opposite) outcomes are participating here. It means, if one bet is lost, the other one certainly wins. The bettor is getting a profit regardless of the game’s result because it earns on the differences in the odds.

Just look at the example below:

On 2.5 Over/Under Goals market, 1xBet bookmaker set out odd 1.57 for expecting more than 2 goals in this match. On the other side, Asianodds & Pinnacle bookmakers set out odd 2.86 for expecting 2 or fewer goals. As the screenshot (taken from https://www.oddsportal.com/ ) shows payout is 101,4%, which means that you can earn 1,4% whatever the outcomes are. The simplest way to make calculations is to use a free online tool, which will do the job for you, like https://en.surebet.com/calculator:


Is it difficult to find surebets? Yes and no. The inconvenience by looking for yourself is that it is time-consuming.

I tested various online tools for this purpose, but I soon realized that there is one tool that has an advantage over the rest -> https://en.surebet.com/ (Note! The link I gave is an affiliate link, which means that if you register through it and buy some paid service, I will get paid as well. The price for you will be the same, but it will help me cover the costs of hosting a blog. I want this blog to be transparent so things, that I recommend here like tools, or sites that have value for me, which I benefited from and thanks to which my current trading is at the higher level. I hope that my advice will also be useful to you 🙂 ). It is the best free tool for searching surebets with an up to 1% profit.

The most important thing is that it presents ongoing/current events, while other tools included a lot of expired thus not valuable at all. Another pro of this tool is the transparent interface, thanks to which you can easily filter the bookmakers with the best odds. If you think 1% is a small ROI then you can buy any of the following plans: https://en.surebet.com/plan/overview. I personally used the Professional option because I was only interested in surebets.

Returning to my adventure, I will tell you how I earned 1500 pounds and I was able to cover the losses resulting from gambling (if you did not read the previous article, here is the link to how I lost money).

The way to earn was simple. I registered with several popular bookmakers which had welcome bonuses. I did it one by one, i.e. when I chose William Hill, I didn’t register anywhere else, because I didn’t want to risk non-fulfillment of bonus conditions criteria adopted by the bookmaker, e.g. 1 month of turnover. Welcome bonuses for recreational players were from 25 to 100 pounds most often. What does recreational mean? Every bookmaker considers their players’ idiots to put it simply! Their policy is that everything is fine when you lose money, but when you win you become a problem for them. Most bookmakers limit their players who, according to them, are professionals. If there is a suspicion that bettor constantly wins or even loses based on the wrongly listed course they mark him or her as a sure bets player. Each bookmaker has its own technical team (including machine learning algorithms) that monitor players. The limit usually lies in the fact that a player cannot bet more than 1 pound on a particular event, which becomes unprofitable when playing sure bets.

In short, I consider bookmakers as a scam that came to me after some time using their services. Despite the fact that I think it is not worth setting up accounts with them, this post gives you a clue, how to be smarter than them and how to beat bookmakers with their money, as well as how to build a larger bank by collecting welcome bonuses if you need them.

On my site, you will not find any affiliate links to sportsbook websites (except for bookmakers being the sports exchange, such as Betfair, Betdaq, Smarkets, Matchbook).

To sort it out which Bookmakers have a good reputation I did research. The most recognizable ranking is created by SBR: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/sportsbook-ratings

The ranking is based on the bookmaker’s solvency, which it offers to its clients. However, there is a lack of information on which bookmakers limit their players! I did another investigation and it resulted that bookmakers who do not limit their players and have a wide range of events are mainly Asian companies like Pinnacle, Sbobet!

My strategy was to minimize the risk I played 2-way surebets. On one side the bookmaker I wanted to beat, on the other Pinnacle, or Sbobet or Betfair. For filtering events, as I mentioned before, I used surebet.com, and this is an example screen:

Usually, I was looking for high odds for the bookmaker I wanted to beat, so that the money from the win was on the bookmaker’s account with high limits, like Pinnacle. As I was lucky for the first time, the loss of the welcome bonus was favorably seen at the bookmaker which the bonus it admitted, because it often happened that over time this bookmaker spammed me with emails encouraging me to return to the game for another bonus, but this time smaller. This happened to me with Bet365. Thanks to this my bankroll were building. Playing surebets is always a risk, that for a specific event, such as less popular, the bookmaker will set a bet limit, e.g. 100 pounds, so I always tried to accept bets from those less trusted, because I on Pinnacle or Betfair I knew this limit before I bet (it was visible in the interface). Thanks to this strategy, I avoided the situation that half of the bet was accepted and unnecessary stress, that I have to play the opposite event somewhere else in order to be breakeven, or with a small loss. I had several such situations, but it is better to go out at -1% than to lose your bank! Remember, the most important thing is to protect the bank and have a backup plan if something goes wrong. As you can see in the print screen, earnings of 0.59% are not something that would satisfy any investor, where you can get more on your bank deposit. Of course, it is fine when the goal is to trade bonuses, but there is almost a finite number of bookmakers with whom you can turn over the bonuses. This prompted me to buy this version of the professional at surebet.com. Thanks to that I used better ROI usually at 2-4%. Of course, there were events where the ROI could be 10% and more. However, due to the fact that I was afraid that the bookmaker would limit my account, I did not play them. As I mentioned earlier, they monitor players and their incorrectly listed odds. What’s more, I think sometimes they especially set overvalued odds to catch such players and ban their accounts. Playing this way I beat such well-known bookmakers as William Hill, Bet365 (reload bonuses), Bet-at-home, Bwin, Unibet, Betsson, Marathon, SportingBet, Tipico, TonyBet and so on. The initial bank that I allocated for surebets was 100 pounds and in half a year increased 10 times! In this way, I collected a bank for about 1500 pounds. I often played surebets for around 1000 pounds, which with a monthly subscription at surebet.com (25 euros) paid me back on the first day I earned between 20-40 pounds, depending on the event.

Another risk to watch out for when playing surebets is an issue settling events, such as in a tennis match. There is often retirement in tennis, i.e. one player interrupts the game, e.g. due to injury. Now different bookmakers settle such a match. Some make returns of the stake per match, others include 1 set as the result of the match. It is very important to be sure how bets are settled because you would not want to lose half or more of your stake because of your ignorance.

After almost a year I had stopped using surebets. Why did I give up if it was going so well?

Well, as you probably guessed, most of the bookmakers at which I turned all the bonuses and kept playing with them, trying to earn this 3 % on average began to limit me, and when I already had a Betfair account I started to get interested in trading and I was thinking about how to get additional money playing like a bookmaker, i.e. set the odds, which the stock market allowed.

To sum up, thanks to surebets I built a solid bank. However, in the long term, I was not able to enlarge it.

If you are not bored yet and still interested in my adventure, which really has started since investing money on the sports exchange, I encourage you to subscribe to the newsletter. Let me remind you that as a bonus I put there a free eBook and spreadsheets, which will help you manage your bank and avoid the mistakes that I made along the way.